The TV Academy’s voting period to determine this year’s Primetime Emmy nominations came to a close last Monday, July 22, but we won’t learn what and who the organization’s members — currently numbering more than 27,000 and spread across 31 peer groups — nominated until two Wednesdays from now, July 8.

In the meantime, I have carefully studied this year’s nomination ballots; consulted with a cross-section of voters and strategists; and reacquainted myself with the Emmys’ history books. And I am now able to share my best guesses of what and who will be nominated in 63 categories encompassing programs — narrative, nonfiction, variety, reality, animation, game and short form — as well as performances, directing, writing, hosting, casting, music, narration and more.

Below, you will find not only my projected nominees, but also “alternates” (what or who I think would be the likeliest beneficiary if one of my picks doesn’t pan out), “potential surprises” (perceived long-shots that actually have a chance) and “shoulda been a contendas” (essentially my shoutout to a contender that I regard as worthy but unlikely to make the cut).

Best Drama Series

Image Credit: Courtesy of HBO Max