Ecuador dug deep to beat Germany and earn a World Cup knockout spot with another big shock, Japan set up a juicy round-of-32 tie with Brazil and the Netherlands are locked in to face 2022 semi-finalists Morocco.The United States suffered their first defeat of the tournament to Turkey but had already qualified as Group D winners, and we said goodbye to Curacao, who exited after losing to the Ivory Coast, having made history as the smallest nation to compete at football’s most celebrated tournament.How did Thursday’s action affect our rankings? Let’s dive in.1. FranceFIFA ranking: 3➡️ (arrow depicts movement from our previous ranking)It is going to take something special to knock France off the top of our rankings, particularly as they seem to have found their formula for success. Since the second half of their opening game against Senegal, Michael Olise has played in the No 10 role and he provided another two assists in the 3-0 win against Iraq, adding to his match-changing performance in the opening game.A storm stoppage in Philadelphia couldn’t take the wind out of Kylian Mbappe’s sails. He scored twice, for the second match in a row, as France booked their spot in the knockouts. A game against Norway on Friday awaits to see who tops the group. Manager Didier Deschamps will miss that game following the death of his mother but is expected to return for the knockouts.Get free access to the most comprehensive World Cup coverage in The Athletic app2. ArgentinaFIFA ranking: 1➡️Lionel Messi is regarded by many as the greatest player of all time, but did we see this coming? Complete domination by the 39-year-old, who has now scored all five of Argentina’s goals in their two wins and became the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer after his double against Austria.The defence will be pleased too after consecutive clean sheets, though Cristian Romero’s substitution against Austria due to a knee injury is a concern.It might be beneficial for some of their other forward players to pick up form as Messi can’t win the World Cup single-handedly. Or can he?3. SpainFIFA ranking: 2⬆️ 1Responded to the humiliation of drawing against Cape Verde in their opener by producing one of the most one-sided performances of the tournament so far in beating Saudi Arabia 4-0. They had 22 shots, produced 2.85 xG and could easily have scored a few more.Lamine Yamal scored 10 minutes into his first World Cup start and got 45 minutes under his belt, while Mikel Oyarzabal overcame the embarrassment of not touching the ball for the first half-hour against Cape Verde by scoring twice.Now to complete the Group H job by beating Uruguay on Friday.4. BrazilFIFA ranking: 6⬆️ 1After their opening draw with Morocco, Brazil have gone from strength to strength, with two 3-0 wins over Haiti and Scotland.They have been comfortable letting the opposition have the ball and pouncing at the right moments, and have played with more of an edge since Manchester United’s Matheus Cunha came in up front against Haiti.Vinicius Jr is their star of the tournament, with four goals already, while Neymar made a substitute appearance against Scotland.Carlo Ancelotti’s side topped Group C — but their round-of-32 opponents, Japan, won’t be pushovers.5. NetherlandsFIFA ranking: 8⬆️ 2Ten goals in three games, with convincing wins over Sweden and Tunisia and a draw against Japan — the Netherlands made their group stage look pretty comfortable, with Brian Brobbey scoring three and Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville adding two each.But they now face a challenging round-of-32 opponent — Morocco on Monday in Monterrey. We will soon find out whether they, and Ronald Koeman’s coaching, stack up.Brian Brobbey scores the Netherlands’ second goal against Sweden (Molly Darlington/Getty Images)6. EnglandFIFA ranking: 4➡️A dull, underwhelming performance and result against lower-ranked opponents? England, you’re back! After the excitement, goals and thrilling attacking football of their 4-2 victory over Croatia, the 0-0 draw against Ghana has stopped everyone shouting: “It’s coming home.” Well, for a few days at least. Victory against Panama in their final group match will get England back on track as group winners.7. GermanyFIFA ranking: 10⬇️ 4Germany lost against Ecuador, but in fairness, they had already secured their spot as Group E winners, while Ecuador needed a win to progress. The worry is that they started with a near-enough strongest XI, before rotating with substitutes and buckling under the intensity.They take a drop in our rankings as the contenders above them are yet to lose a game, but Julian Nagelsmann’s team still made light work of Curacao and beat a capable Ivory Coast.According to The Athletic’s live predictor tool, they have a 99 per cent chance of facing Paraguay in the round of 32.8. MoroccoFIFA ranking: 7➡️So far, so good for Mohamed Ouahbi, who was hired as Morocco’s manager in March, having led the nation to victory at the Under-20 World Cup in 2025.In Group C, they went toe-to-toe with Brazil before beating Scotland and Haiti rather convincingly. Using Ismael Saibari to lead the line has proved an inspired choice — he has scored one goal in every group game.Their round-of-32 draw hasn’t been kind, though. They will be in Monterrey, facing another top 10 team in our rankings, the Netherlands.9. NorwayFIFA ranking: 31⬆️1The dark horses are galloping on to the knockouts and have to be taken more seriously after their 3-2 win over Senegal.Norway ran the (stripped) African champions’ defence ragged. They had chances galore and forced mistakes from the opposition backline.Conceding late made the victory less emphatic, but seven goals in two games speak to their firepower. Key to that is Erling Haaland, who is proving unstoppable after another double. They have shown defensive vulnerability, but have been able to outscore their opposition.10. MexicoFIFA ranking: 13⬆️ 1The first team to collect three wins from three in the group stage. Mexico scored six goals and kept three clean sheets, beating the Czech Republic 3-0 with a rotated side on Wednesday.Several Mexico players caught the eye, including 17-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora and forward Julian Quinones, who has scored two goals.Winning Group A means they will stay in Mexico City for the round of 32 (and, if they make it through, the round of 16), with The Athletic’s live prediction tool forecasting a 71 per cent chance of facing Ecuador.11. United StatesFIFA ranking: 17⬇️ 2The U.S. have been responsible for bringing great excitement to the tournament as one of the three co-hosts. Their positive and adventurous football has not been short of goals. But after rotating against Turkey, they lost some momentum, suffering a late 3-2 loss.Still, with an elite coach, Mauricio Pochettino, in the dugout, their fans are full of confidence entering the knockouts, asking, ‘Why not U.S.?’Facing Bosnia and Herzegovina in the next round, they will fancy their chances of reaching the last 16.12. ColombiaFIFA ranking: 14➡️A team of attacking talent and with willing runners aplenty, they have a 100 per cent record with two wins from two. Neither victory was wholly convincing, with a wobble against Uzbekistan and then an unnecessarily tight 1-0 victory over DR Congo, but Colombia have achieved their first aim of the tournament by progressing to the knockout stages.To do it with a game to spare takes the pressure off their lip-licking game with Portugal this weekend, but they’ll still want to top the group, which they can do with a draw.13. PortugalFIFA ranking: 5➡️Portugal put right the wrongs of their underwhelming opener against DR Congo with a much-needed 5-0 shellacking of Uzbekistan to get their tournament up and running.The fact Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice wasn’t just an historic moment (he became the first man to score in six different World Cups) but important to quell the incessant noise about his place in the side, at least for a few days.However, given how overawed and inexperienced the Uzbek defence was, any excitement at Portugal’s overall prospects should be tempered. Their clash with Colombia next up will tell us more.14. SwitzerlandFIFA ranking: 19➡️After starting with a draw against Qatar, Switzerland progressed to the knockout stages as Group B winners following victories over Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina. An encouraging sign has been the performances of 20-year-old Freiburg midfielder Johan Manzambi, who has breathed new life into the team with three goals.After going undefeated, they look likely to have a fairly kind landing in the next phase, with Egypt (23 per cent), Iran (21 per cent) and Algeria (17 per cent) among their most likely opponents in the round of 32.15. CroatiaFIFA ranking: 11➡️Survived a couple of real scares against Panama to edge a narrow 1-0 victory thanks to substitute Ante Budimir’s close-range finish.How far can Croatia’s golden-olden generation take them in this tournament? The signs in their opening two matches haven’t been great, but one thing we have learned from the finalists in 2018 and semi-finalists in 2022 is to never write them off.16. JapanFIFA ranking: 18⬆️ 1A likeable team who have impressed in the groups playing an egoless, exciting brand of football, their style was exemplified in their final game, a 1-1 draw with Sweden, in which they took off their captain after 39 minutes and scored a well-crafted team goal.Japan’s most impressive performance was the 4-0 win over Tunisia in their second group game. They will play Brazil in Houston in the round of 32, and not everyone would rule them out.17. EgyptFIFA ranking: 29⬇️ 1So far, so good.They were made to sweat by New Zealand and had to come from behind, but Egypt finally won a match at the World Cup for the first time, inspired by a goal and an assist from Mohamed Salah.You wouldn’t say they’ve offered much evidence that they can go deep in the tournament, but victory over Iran on Friday will mean they top Group G and would see them paired with a third-placed side in the round of 32.18. GhanaFIFA ranking: 73➡️It couldn’t have gone much better. Victory over Panama was brilliantly backed up with a 0-0 draw against England in a resolute, organised performance.They could even have won via sporadic, pacy threats on the counter and, if VAR hadn’t gone for a coffee, they might have had a penalty for Ezri Konsa’s foul on Prince Kwabena Adu.Four points from two games essentially secures their progress to the knockout stages.19. CanadaFIFA ranking: 30➡️Canada can be happy with their work in the group stages. They emphatically earned their first men’s World Cup win with a 6-0 victory over Qatar as key player Jonathan David found form, scoring a hat-trick.Ismael Kone breaking his leg against Qatar was a dark cloud, but Canada still progressed in second place. They had the chance to finish top and remain on home turf for the round of 32, but lost to Switzerland.Their opponents for the next round at SoFi Stadium? South Africa. It could be a lot worse.20. Ivory CoastFIFA ranking: 33⬆️ 2With a 2-0 win over Curacao, Ivory Coast reached the World Cup knockout stages for the first time. The level of their performances in the group phase shows promise to go further, with wingers Yan Diomande and Amad capable of troubling any defence.Their round-of-32 match-up will test that. They will face the runners-up of Group I — France or Norway.21. BelgiumFIFA ranking: 9⬇️ 1That FIFA ranking might need updating to a more realistic number.Belgium’s stats in their second match against Iran (23 shots, 1.82 xG, 70 per cent possession) tell you they dominated the game and should have won, but stats also tell you that Kevin De Bruyne is one of the Premier League’s best ever players and Romelu Lukaku is the Belgian national team’s record goalscorer, and right now those things don’t mean too much.Belgium look like half a team. They have failed to beat Egypt and Iran, and even if they now beat New Zealand on Friday, how far can they realistically go in this tournament? They need Jeremy Doku back and firing, that’s for sure.22. South KoreaFIFA ranking: 22⬇️ 1South Korea suffered defeat against South Africa in their final group game, but they should still progress to the knockout stages as one of the best third-placed teams.They made a promising start with a 2-1 win over the Czech Republic, but didn’t score again in their second, a loss to Mexico, or third match.The Athletic’s live projection tool gives them a 64 per cent chance of making the round of 32, with Egypt (46 per cent) their most likely opponent.23. SwedenFIFA ranking: 38⬆️ 2After thrashing Tunisia and being thrashed by the Netherlands, Thursday’s 1-1 draw against Japan evens them out as a solid-looking team. Sweden have wrapped up their spot in the knockouts as one of the eight best third-placed teams — despite Anthony Elanga’s apparent confusion.Elanga’s curling strike in that Japan draw showed they have individuals capable of game-changing moments, along with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres.According to The Athletic’s live prediction tool, there is a 99 per cent certainty they will face Group I’s winners — France or Norway.24. EcuadorFIFA ranking: 24⬆️ 6Ecuador’s victory over Germany took them through to the World Cup knockouts for the first time in 20 years. Had they not suffered a late defeat by the Ivory Coast, or been denied by Curacao goalkeeper Eloy Room’s masterclass, they might have finished higher than third in Group E.They have continued the defensive strength they showed in qualifying, which bodes well for the round of 32, where they have a 71 per cent chance of facing Mexico.25. AustraliaFIFA ranking: 27⬆️ 2Progression as Group D runners-up marks a solid effort from Australia, and two clean sheets from three games helped them do it.Despite disappointing against the United States, their highlight was the performance against Turkey, producing a 2-0 win with only 28 per cent possession in a breakout game for 20-year-old Watford forward Nestory Irankunda.They will have to channel this solidarity and cutting-edge in the knockout stages, where they will face the runners-up of Group G.26. UruguayFIFA ranking: 16⬇️ 3Oh dear. Two matches, 44 shots, 3.88 xG, three goals… but only two points. And now they need a result against Spain to go through. Not what Marcelo Bielsa envisaged when plotting Uruguay’s progress from Group H.We weren’t quite sure what to expect from Uruguay pre-tournament; they had finished level on points with Brazil and Colombia in qualification and clearly have a high-quality midfield, but their form coming into the finals was dreadful.They’ve carried that into the World Cup, and the fragile, porous two-man wall that allowed Cape Verde’s free kick to sneak in sums up Uruguay so far.27. AlgeriaFIFA ranking: 28⬇️ 3Algeria showed they are a threat from set pieces, scoring both goals from corners in a turnaround win against Jordan. This could help them hurt superior opposition from limited chances. Riyad Mahrez came back into the starting line-up and was a creative spark in open play.Their game against Austria on Sunday will now determine who goes through in second place from Group J, but three points puts them in with a chance of a third-place progression. They have a minus-two goal difference, though, so have work to do.28. SenegalFIFA ranking: 15⬇️ 2No points on the board after two games. Senegal had a positive start to the tournament, with a good first-half showing against France, but since then they’ve conceded six goals.The silver lining is Ismaila Sarr’s double against Norway and Ibrahim Mbaye’s goal against France, showing they are capable of breaching top teams.But against Norway, they made defensive errors and could have conceded more. Edouard Mendy produced top saves, but came off injured after an hour.Now, a comprehensive win against Iraq is needed on Friday to have a chance of sneaking through as one of the eight best third-placed teams. With a real risk of being knocked out, they take a large drop in the rankings.29. AustriaFIFA ranking: 25⬇️ 1Ralf Rangnick tinkered with the starting line-up against Argentina, bringing Tottenham’s Kevin Danso into the back line and PSV’s Paul Wanner into midfield.The problem is that this team, despite having quality, doesn’t have prolific forwards or a formidable defence (conceding to Jordan). It is unclear where their real strength to hurt better teams lies.After Algeria’s win over Jordan, a meeting with them on Sunday will determine who progresses in second place in the group.30. ParaguayFIFA ranking: 40⬆️ 2Paraguay are almost certain to qualify as one of the best third-place teams after earning their fourth point in a 0-0 draw with Australia.They started their tournament disappointingly against the co-hosts, thrashed 4-1 by the USA, but held onto a win against Turkey after Matias Galarza’s long-range strike two minutes in, despite Miguel Almiron being dismissed at the end of the first half for covering his mouth while speaking to an opponent, the first ever red card for this offence.Overall, they have not looked like a team that will threaten too much in the knockout stages, other than frustrate opponents and be defensively solid, particularly as they are practically guaranteed to face Germany.31. IranFIFA ranking: 20⬇️ 2On the face of it, they achieved a great result against Belgium, against whom they created some excellent chances and had an intuitive free-kick goal narrowly ruled out for offside. But Iran are still waiting for their first win of the tournament and their hopes of progressing to the knockout stages against all odds are on a knife-edge.Drawing with New Zealand in their opening game may prove costly — as may not taking advantage of Belgium going down to 10 men — but Iran will hope Egypt may take their foot off the gas in their final Group G game on Friday.32. Bosnia and HerzegovinaFIFA ranking: 64⬇️ 1Unlike the Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina didn’t waste their chance after progressing through the European qualification play-offs, knocking out Italy in the final. A 3-1 win against Qatar earned their place in the World Cup’s round of 32, adding to the point earned against Canada in their opening draw.Having finished third in Group B, they are set to face another host, the United States, in San Francisco next.33. South AfricaFIFA ranking: 61➡️After South Africa’s poor defeat in their opener against Mexico, few would have predicted the turnaround that has followed — and the big jump in our rankings.Manager Hugo Broos has tinkered with his line-up throughout the group stage, including dropping Burnley’s Lyle Foster after the 2-0 Mexico loss, and the side looked more threatening on the break against South Korea on Wednesday in a dramatic 1-0 victory.As Group A runners-up, they progressed to the knockouts for the first time and their round-of-32 opponent is another host nation — they will face Canada in Los Angeles.34. Cape VerdeFIFA ranking: 67➡️One of the stories of this World Cup. Unbeaten in two matches, claiming that shock draw against Spain in their opener and then backing it up with another famous result, drawing 2-2 with Uruguay, via a 40-yard free kick (the less said about the Uruguay wall, the better) and then a moment of ingenuity from substitute Helio Varela.That’s two former world champions Cape Verde have held off, so how about their chances against Saudi Arabia next? Victory in that match would make Cape Verde the most unlikely knockout-stage team in the history of this tournament. Even a draw might do. Incredible.35. ScotlandFIFA ranking: 41➡️Scotland’s job in their final group game was to avoid a heavy defeat, so they left the game disappointed after a 3-0 loss. They were allowed possession by Brazil but made decisive errors at the back, and were punished.Despite beating Haiti in their opening game, they only scored one goal in the group stages and have looked relatively flat, while Scott McTominay has not got going.Their hopes of progression lie in other nations’ hands and are becoming increasingly slimmer. The Athletic’s live projection tool gives them a 12 per cent chance of reaching the round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams.36. Saudi ArabiaFIFA ranking: 60➡️After their spirited opening draw with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia were brought back down to earth with a 4-0 humbling by Spain. To be honest, it could have been much worse than four, given the Spaniards’ complete dominance.However, if you’d offered the Saudis the chance to beat Cape Verde and finish on four points in at least third position in Group H, they’d have undoubtedly taken it. That is now their task.37. New ZealandFIFA ranking: 85➡️Just like in their previous World Cup appearance in 2010, they’ve been stubborn and hard to beat. They drew all three matches 16 years ago, but succumbed to their first defeat at the tournament since their debut (and only other) in 1982 when losing 3-1 to Mohamed Salah’s Egypt, despite taking a first-half lead through Finn Surman.New Zealand still have the opportunity to create history — beat a flagging Belgium team on Saturday to almost certainly reach the knockout stages for the first time.38. DR Congo➡️FIFA ranking: 46Again gave a good account of themselves against star-studded opposition, following up their shock 1-1 draw against Portugal with a narrow 1-0 defeat by Colombia. Defensively they look pretty handy and always carry a threat on the break through Yoane Wissa.Victory against Uzbekistan this weekend surely puts them through to the knockout stage with four points.39. IraqFIFA ranking: 57⬆️ 1Iraq haven’t got near their opponents, who in fairness have boasted two of the best forwards in the world in Haaland and Mbappe. Their captain, Aymen Hussein, who scored against Norway, had to be replaced with an injury after 26 minutes in their loss to France, which didn’t help matters.Beat Senegal comprehensively, and they could still progress. But the chances of that seem slim.40. UzbekistanFIFA ranking: 50⬆️ 1After a good showing against Colombia, Uzbekistan wilted against Portugal and Ronaldo, defending with naivety in a humbling 5-0 defeat that had star player Abdukodir Khusanov in tears at full time.Uzbekistan were not expected to earn a point from their two opening matches, but with their confidence and goal difference both having taken a hammering, they now need to beat DR Congo and get lucky with results elsewhere to progress as a third-placed team.It looks like a tall order.The eliminated teams41. CuracaoFIFA ranking: 82⬇️ 2The smallest nation to compete at a World Cup came away with a point, earned against Ecuador thanks to the heroics of goalkeeper Eloy Room, and their first goal at the tournament scored by Livano Comenencia, but were eliminated following defeat by the Ivory Coast.After losing 7-1 to Germany in their first game, they recovered to give a good account of themselves overall.The outstanding Eloy Room (Charlotte Wilson/Getty Images)42. TurkeyFIFA ranking: 23⬆️ 5Possibly the most underwhelming team compared to their pre-tournament expectations at this year’s World Cup. Most would have predicted Turkey to progress ahead of Australia and Paraguay. Instead, they were eliminated with a game to spare.They saved face in their final match, scoring their first goals and earning a 3-2 win against the United States, but it was too late to matter.