This is my final projection for the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft. It’s my best guess, based on months of reporting on this class of prospects, as to what I think will happen tonight when the draft begins.1. Toronto Maple Leafs: Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA)Toronto has some passion for other players. I think they like Ivar Stenberg, Chase Reid and Caleb Malhotra a lot, but I also think they are persuaded by McKenna’s 100-point potential and view him as a possible difference-maker. I expect him to be the No. 1 pick.2. San Jose Sharks: Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frölunda (SHL)The last few weeks, the buzz around the NHL has been about what San Jose will do. For the longest time, most of my sources were convinced they would go with Reid. As we get closer, though, that has slightly shifted toward Stenberg. I think the Sharks like both players a lot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either were the pick. I think they like other players too, such as Carson Carels and Keaton Verhoeff, but I would be surprised to hear their names.Are the Sharks why the Blackhawks traded for Bowen Byram?Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and more3. Vancouver Canucks: Chase Reid, RHD, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)The No. 3 spot has belonged to Caleb Malhotra throughout the lead-up to the draft, and I do believe Vancouver has a ton of passion for the player, but the Canucks have also been quite high on Reid. As we’ve inched closer to the draft, my hunch is that’s the direction they’ll go. I could see either player being the pick here, though.4. Buffalo Sabres: Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)In this scenario, Buffalo would take Malhotra and be quite happy getting a premium young center to add to its system. If Malhotra goes 3, I think the Sabres would consider Reid, but I also believe their people are fond of Daxon Rudolph.5. New York Rangers: Alberts Šmits, LHD, Munich (DEL)This pick is where a lot of uncertainty starts for me. Will it be Šmits? Will it be Carels (whose lingering concussion issues are becoming a mild concern for teams), or potentially Viggo Björck? My slight lean from my information is Šmits, but I could easily see it being one of those other two players.6. Calgary Flames: Carson Carels, LHD, Prince George (WHL)I think Calgary is very happy to get Carels here. If he’s gone, they would have to choose between Björck or Verhoeff, and if I had to pick one, I would guess they would lean toward Björck.7. Seattle Kraken: Daxon Rudolph, RHD, Prince Albert (WHL)The board will likely play out for the Kraken to get a much-needed top defense prospect, be it Šmits, Verhoeff or Rudolph. The league consensus thinks Rudolph fits more what they’ve tended to target, which is skill and hockey sense.8. Winnipeg Jets: Keaton Verhoeff, RHD, North Dakota (NCAA)In this scenario, Winnipeg is very happy to get one of Verhoeff or Rudolph. I’ve heard a lot of buzz with them with Björck here, but my guess is they end up with one of the big defensemen. Verhoeff slides in this scenario, but as one NHL GM told me this week, don’t be surprised if he goes top five, as there is significant passion in some corners of the league for the player.