The Athletic has live coverage of Curacao vs Ivory Coast at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.If you’re a fan of Scotland, South Korea or any other team that finishes in third place in its group at the World Cup, the question is now: Are we in?These teams are waiting in limbo, unsure whether they have done enough to advance to the knockout rounds. Unlike in past tournaments, where only each group’s top two teams advanced, this year, eight of the 12 third-place teams will move on to the Round of 32. Those standings are determined by points, then goal differential — and, perhaps most critically, they are not finalized until all groups have finished play. (The last group-stage matches are Saturday at 10 p.m. Eastern.)But our forecast, based on thousands of simulations of the tournament, helps provide clarity:
If you finish third with four points, you will almost certainly advance.
If you finish third with three points, you probably will advance, but it will depend on your goal differential.
If you finish third with two points, you likely will not advance.
This chart shows the likelihood of advancing based on a third-place team’s points and goal differential as of Thursday morning:This chart will update live on our forecast page as games are played. It may provide reassurance to some teams — and worry to others.Here’s what it tells us about the three teams that have already finished in third place:
