Indian government bonds rallied for a fourth straight day on Thursday as oil prices fell to pre-war levels, while foreign inflows and the Reserve Bank of India's dovish remarks supported sentiment ahead of fresh debt supply. Brent crude fell to $72.24 a barrel in Asian trade as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, returning prices to levels last seen in late February. The rally, however, was capped ahead of New Delhi's 280-billion-rupee ($2.96 billion) debt sale due later in the day. The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield dropped 2 basis points to 6.7648% by 10:45 a.m IST, after falling 5 bps on Wednesday, its biggest jump in a month. The 10-year yield is now 10 basis points above pre-war levels, down from a peak of nearly 50 basis points. Lower oil prices have supported foreign demand for Indian debt, with overseas investors buying a net 236 billion rupees($2.51 billion) of government bonds so far in June, the highest monthly inflow in two years if sustained. Foreign inflows into Asian bonds hit a three-month high of $5.61 billion in May, led by South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and India. "As flows continue from FPIs with the increased likelihood of (Bloomberg) index inclusion, overall momentum is also expected to continue," said Basant Bafna, head of fixed income at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India). Investors also scaled back expectations of higher rates, leading to a sharp fall in overnight index swap rates on Wednesday, after RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said it was "premature" to talk about rate hikes. Traders are tracking El Nino's impact on India's monsoons to gauge risks to inflation and growth.RATES Investors continued to receive fixed rates on Thursday, although at a slower pace. The one-year OIS rate dropped 2 bps to 5.75% and the two-year rate was down 3 bps at 5.88%. The five-year rate fell 2.25 bps to 6.155%. ($1 = 94.2550 Indian rupees)
India bonds jump ahead of auction as oil erases war-led gains
Indian government bonds saw a significant rally for the fourth consecutive day, buoyed by falling oil prices and positive sentiment from foreign inflows and the Reserve Bank of India's cautious stance on rate hikes. This surge occurred ahead of a substantial debt sale, with benchmark yields dropping. Overseas investors are showing strong interest, marking the highest monthly inflow in two years, potentially driven by index inclusion expectations.







