Jun 24, 2026 – 3.55pmBond traders are not ruling out the chance of one more interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia this year, after the central bank’s preferred inflation measure ticked higher last month.Markets held firm to their rate bets even as headline inflation slowed to 4 per cent in May. Traders are still pricing in a 25 per cent chance of a rate increase at the RBA’s next board meeting in August, and a solid 64 per cent chance of a move higher by December.Subscribe to gift this articleGift 5 articles to anyone you choose each month when you subscribe.Subscribe nowAlready a subscriber? Fetching latest articles
Bond traders won’t rule out fourth rate rise even as inflation cools
A drop-off in headline CPI was not enough to convince the bond market that the RBA is done raising rates, as markets price in a 60 per cent chance by December.
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