Anthropic launched Fable 5, its most powerful consumer-facing AI model, earlier this month, but the company disabled the model just days later after being ordered by the U.S. government to block foreign nationals from using the model.
Since then, Anthropic has been working to restore access to Fable 5, but there has been no official confirmation from the company about when it will be able to offer the model to its users.
Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $450,000 has been bet on the contract "When will Anthropic restore Fable 5 access for US customers?" According to bettors, there is a 47% probability that access will be restored "Before Jul 10, 2026," while the odds surge to 58% for "Before Jul 17, 2026" and to 61% for "Before Jul 24, 2026".
Disclaimer: Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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