Which man is likelier to be leading his country in 2029, Donald Trump or Volodymyr Zelenskiy? The savvy bet would be Zelenskiy, even if Trump tries to defy term limits. No other world leader can claim to have survived and thrived on the enmity of both Trump and Vladimir Putin. The misfortunes befalling Russia’s “special military operation” mean he could also outlast Putin. But Zelenskiy’s tenacity goes further than the battlefield. He, more than any other western leader – barring Trump (and for different motives) – has the ability to catalyse change in Europe.Trump likes to hang out with winners. In the Oval Office 15 months ago he presented Zelenskiy as the loser. He said the Ukrainian did not have any cards. Having failed to get him to sign a one-sided mineral rights deal, Scott Bessent, Trump’s treasury secretary, referred to Ukraine’s leader as “this little f****r” and the “special-needs child for the Europeans”, according to Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan in their new book, Regime Change. Children with special needs often have difficulties learning. Ukraine’s capacity to innovate on the battlefield suggests Zelenskyy does not face such challenges.The situation on the ground has not necessarily been moving to Russia’s advantage. Trump thus took a very different approach to Zelenskiy last week at the G7 summit in Evian. The measure of the US president’s shift was evident in the G7 statement commending Ukraine’s “resilience” and “new momentum”, while promising more western arms and aid to carry it through next winter.It is doubtful Trump can ever bring himself to see Zelenskiy as a winner. His retributive instinct means he cannot forgive Ukraine’s leader for declining to dig up dirt on former US president Joe Biden during his first term. Trump will forever associate Zelenskiy with his first impeachment. But he is no longer presenting him as a loser.The House of Representatives earlier this month passed a new $8 billion aid package for Ukraine. Via the same “discharge petition” used to get around the block by Republican speaker Mike Johnson when publishing the Epstein files, Ukraine aid passed comfortably. The Senate will be the test. Would Trump veto it? That there is no obvious answer today is telling.More significant is whether Trump approves Zelenskiy’s plea to make Patriot air missile defences in Ukraine. The Ukrainian president claims he has – and Lockheed Martin would presumably welcome the business. Given Trump’s conviction that Putin is regional top dog, his green light is unlikely. But Zelenskiy has new leverage. Teams of Ukrainian defence entrepreneurs are advising the Pentagon as part of its new $54 billion drone warfare budget. Ukrainian start-ups and those who use their products on the battlefield are in acute demand globally. It is becoming harder for Trumpians to present Ukraine as a welfare beneficiary.Nor, in an age when America’s first family is openly using the president’s office to enrich itself, does the charge of Ukrainian corruption any longer carry resonance in Washington. Zelenskiy has had his share of graft scandals. But Trump, who has suspended America’s Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, is partial to deal-making inducements. Zelenskiy can offer some nowadays. Putin, on the other hand, is uninterested in Trump’s recurring offers to broker a deal. That also explains Trump’s acquiescence to the G7 communique. With the fires from recent Ukrainian drone strikes visible in Moscow and St Petersburg, Putin is in no state to negotiate.Zelenskiy’s clarity of purpose gives him greater potential sway over the west’s future than any leader other than Trump. Canada’s Mark Carney also has a clear agenda, courtesy of Trump’s predatory rhetoric. But the debate over Ukraine’s EU membership could help give birth to a genuine European defence identity. Given Trump’s distaste for the alliance, the debates over EU expansion and the future of Nato will increasingly overlap. With the largest and most modern military in Europe, Ukraine’s voice will be critical.Zelenskiy’s rhetoric stands as a rebuke to the timidity of western leadership. As one British prime minister is replaced by another, and France faces the prospect of a far-right president next year, Zelenskiy offers conviction. Amid a world of right-wing strongmen, he makes the case for liberal democracy without apology. Because of Ukraine’s circumstances, he speaks to a larger audience than other leaders – except one. Trump is no friend of the “West”. Zelenskiy, meanwhile, is reminding the West of itself. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026