For one NBA scout who saw Santa Clara this season, Allen Graves didn’t look like a prospect on the radar for the 2026 NBA Draft. He was aware of Graves, but the forward’s game didn’t excite him.But the analytics staff for this scout’s team raved about Graves, which prompted the scout to take a second look.“I came around to agree with our analytics people,” said the scout, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to publicly discuss team matters. “I don’t feel about it the way they do, but he’s better than I thought he was initially, and that’s a place where analytics and the intuitive eye work together.”Graves started this season as an unknown big man coming off the bench at Santa Clara. He redshirted his first season in the program and was an unranked recruit despite being the Louisiana Player of the Year as a high school senior. He started only four games at Santa Clara, a mid-major program in the West Coast Conference. His primary stats didn’t stand out, either: 11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game.How the numbers helped Allen Graves become an NBA Draft prospectMatthew HoBut Graves is a projected first-round pick in Tuesday’s NBA Draft and could go as high as the top 20 — a rise that one NBA analytics staffer said is an example of analytics’ growing influence on decision-making.“Maybe a few years ago, if Graves shows up, he likely wouldn’t have been getting the same push,” said the staffer, granted anonymity in exchange for their candor.The deeper you looked into Graves’ numbers at Santa Clara, the more remarkable they became. Graves averaged 0.9 blocks and 1.9 steals in just 22 minutes per game. Of his 6.5 rebounds, 2.8 were offensive boards, and he had a 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. He also shot 41.3 percent from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game.Per 40 minutes, Graves averaged 4.9 offensive rebounds, 3.4 steals, 1.7 blocks and just 1.3 turnovers.
How analytics turned Allen Graves from mid-major unknown into a potential first-round pick
Graves started only four games at Santa Clara and averaged 22 minutes per game, but his production stood out on NBA Draft models.














