After months of continuous rain across the archipelago, Indonesia is set to enter a prolonged dry season in the second half of 2026.
With the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicting that the 2026 El Niño phenomenon will bring a drier, longer drought, experts have called for greater caution and anticipatory measures as the heat raises the risk of land and forest fires.
Palm oil producer Asian Agri says land and forest fire preparedness has long been a priority for the company. Efforts that are supported through routine prevention measures and active collaboration with stakeholders, including the Forestry Ministry’s land and forest fire response brigade (Manggala Agni) and local communities around the company’s operational areas in North Sumatra, Riau and Jambi.
“Our approach is not seasonal; our fire prevention efforts are year-round, but we increase our vigilance and preparedness for extreme weather conditions such as this ‘Godzilla’ El Niño,” said Dani Nugraha Syafly, Asian Agri’s fire assistant.
According to the BMKG’s climate modeling, El Niño is predicted to last until early 2027, with a 98 percent chance to grow into a moderate category, and a 62 percent chance to grow into the strong category. These categories refer to the scale of ocean warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific: "moderate" indicates sea surface temperatures of about 1 to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, while "strong" indicates about 1.5 to less than 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
