The Indian rupee snapped a six-day-long run of gains on Monday, as the dollar hovered near a one-year peak against a basket of peers even as a retreat in oil prices soothed worries over spillovers from the U.S.-Iran war.The currency ended the trading session at 94.6775 per dollar, down 0.4% from its close on Friday. The rupee had risen about 1% in the preceding six sessions.Asian currencies declined between 0.3% and 0.7%. A hawkish turn by the U.S. Federal Reserve last week has prompted traders to add to wagers on a rate hike later this year, keeping the dollar index clinging to its highest levels - near the 101 handle - since May 2025.Futures implied tightening of around 38 basis points by the year-end. Yields on 2-year notes rose as much as 4 basis points to the highest since early 2025 at 4.23%."Markets may try to use the next data or Fedspeak catalyst to price in 50bp of Fed tightening in 2026, but unless there is a fresh Middle East escalation, lower oil prices should contain USD gains," analysts at ING said in a note.Brent crude oil prices declined nearly 2% after U.S. and Iranian officials made "encouraging progress" at a first round of talks in Switzerland.While the rupee's persistent bearish bias has eased in light of the retreat in oil prices and policy measures to draw dollar inflows, traders reckoned that the prospect of higher borrowing costs in the U.S. could dampen the improved sentiment.Dollar-rupee far forward premiums, which reflect the cost of hedging against rupee depreciation, rose on Monday with the 1-year forward implied yield up 10 bps at 2.95%.Bankers also expect that hedging of interest obligations on foreign currency deposits, raised under aforementioned measures to draw dollar flows, would likely steepen the forward curve.
Rupee snaps six-session winning streak as firmer dollar pinches
The Indian rupee slipped on Monday, snapping its six-day upward trend due to the strengthening dollar worldwide. While falling oil prices eased some apprehensions related to conflicts, the Federal Reserve's assertive monetary policy continues to support the dollar. Consequently, traders are bracing for further upticks in U.S. interest rates, which is hindering the rupee's potential recovery, despite initiatives to boost dollar inflows.
Indian rupee snapped six-day gains, sliding 0.4% to 94.68/dollar as the dollar surged near 101 on Fed rate-hike bets. Tech capex denominated in dollars or tied to Indian outsourcing will face margin pressure from rising U.S. borrowing costs.







