Summary:Colombian Bonds, Stocks Rise as Right-Wing, Trump-Backed Espriella Wins VoteTrump-Backed "El Tigre" Wins Colombia Presidency As Socialist Era EndsColombian Assets Rise After Trump-Backed Candidate Wins Presidential Election Colombian-dollar bonds surged across the curve on Monday, led by notes due in 2054, as traders bet that right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella's presidential win will cut taxes, reduce spending, crack down on crime, and reopen the oil industry to unleash an energy revolution.The streets of Bogotá have erupted in celebration after it was announced that El Tigre has won the presidential election. pic.twitter.com/hB9zqgjBZW
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 21, 2026According to Bloomberg data, bonds due in 2054 led the advance, up 0.8 cent to 116.9 cents on the dollar.Colombian 2036 dollar bonds are rising. Peso jumped 1.5%. Colombia's version of the S&P 500, COLCAP, jumped 4% on Monday, with energy stocks leading, up 7.2%. Credicorp said Colombian stocks could rise 5% following the election and as much as 20% over the longer term, while local yields could slide by 150-200 bps in the months ahead.BTG Pactual analyst Munir Jalil penned a note earlier today that outlined De la Espriella's win as "directionally constructive given the market-friendly platform on security, taxes, investment, and hydrocarbons.""However, the near-term asset rally may be more contained than after the first round, as part of the outcome was already priced and the external backdrop is less supportive," Jalil said, adding, "We expect the COP and TES to react positively at first. Still, the move's durability should depend on the cabinet, the transition, fiscal signals, and the ability to build a stable congressional majority."De la Espriella's government planJPMorgan analyst Diego Pereira said, "A one-point win is still a win, but one this thin reshapes both the mandate and the politics of delivery across fronts."Pereira's view on Colombian markets:Local markets:We remain OW TES and long Sep-2030 TES, expecting the next leg of the rally to be driven by greater clarity on governability and fiscal consolidation plans. We stay MW COP and close the outright short COP vs BRL and MXN we had as a hedge for our position in bonds as the market settles after the openSovereign credit:We reduce our OW weighting from 1.0 to 0.5 given potential tensions during the transition period from the revealed stark polarization.Corporate Credit:In the corporate space, we have expressed our view on Colombia’s elections through OW recommendations on the belly of Ecopetrol’s curve — the '32s, '33s, and '36s — alongside an OW on Bancolombia’s 2034 notesEquities:With today’s official confirmation of Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory, we view the result as confirmation of a policy regime change, which should support a broader re-rating in Colombian equities. From an equity strategy perspective, Energy offers the clearest opportunity around this outcome, and Ecopetrol (Neutral, covered by Milene Carvalho) stands out as the most direct way to gain exposure.De la Espriella's win on Sunday night is part of a once-in-a-generation political shift across Latin America, a region ruled for years by nation-killing socialist regimes that have been voted out of office due to failed progressive policies sparking violent crime waves and economic turmoil. The rise of market-friendly, right-wing leaders has sparked rallies across the continent.Amazing what happens when USAID gets defunded.
