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The profit African airlines can expect to make in 2026 is a meagre $0.40 (about R6.54) per passenger, down from $2.10 (R34.31) per passenger in 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata). The region’s profitability is expected to weaken as a result of cost-related vulnerabilities, particularly regarding the supply and price of fuel.In the view of Willie Walsh, the airline association’s director-general, the continent will never develop its full potential unless it creates a single African aviation market. Yet, not much progress has been made in implementing the AU’s initiative to liberalise the continent’s aviation industry, namely the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM). It was launched in 2018 but has failed to really get off the ground.“It is bizarre that, to connect within Africa, you often have to fly outside the continent. The best way to counter this is to provide greater freedom for airlines within the continent,” Walsh told Business Day on the sidelines of Iata’s AGM in Rio de Janeiro. “The potential is huge, yet Africa still represents only about 2% of the global aviation market. It should represent at least 6% or 7%.”Walsh uses the example of when the European aviation market was opened up.It is bizarre that, to connect within Africa, you often have to fly outside the continent. The best way to counter this is to provide greater freedom for airlines within the continent.— Willie Walsh“If you give people the option to fly from A to B, the potential for growth in Africa is huge, but it needs role players to be confident that they can compete, rather than seeing it as a threat,” said Walsh. “Over the longer term, African airlines will benefit and more investment will flow in. Yes, there were failures when the European market opened up, but now the market size has grown many times, consumers have more choice, and there are more airlines.”While the war in the Middle East has led to a fall of 3.4% in global air passenger demand in April compared to the same period last year, demand in Africa has increased by 2.2%, although from a low base. African airlines also saw a 7.7% year-on-year rise in demand for air cargo transport during April 2026, and there was a 12.8% year-on-year rise in demand for air cargo movements from Africa to Asia — the 10th consecutive month of growth on this trade lane.The Iata points out that structural constraints continue in the African region, with weak infrastructure, fragmented airspace and limited cross-border co-ordination reducing network efficiency and raising operating costs. In addition, limited financial capacity and access to capital restrict fleet expansion and network development.According to Kirby Gordon, spokesperson for FlySafair, the airline is, at this stage, not seeing a change in passenger patterns so much as just an overall decline in the number of passengers, which is partly seasonal. “May is a low period but also clearly driven by the increased cost to fly at the moment and, no doubt, by a degree of consumer reticence in light of increased living costs and uncertainty,” Gordon told Business Day.Cilliers Jordaan, chief commercial officer of Lift, says the conflict in the Middle East had an immediate and direct impact on airline fuel costs. While airlines, in some cases, used fuel surcharges to offset a portion of these increases, the full cost was not passed on to customers.However, the impact extends beyond airfares. Rising costs across the broader economy have placed additional pressure on consumers, reducing discretionary spending and affecting demand for travel. Many travellers are now prioritising essential trips and delaying non-essential travel and leisure decisions.“As a result, we have seen a slowdown in forward bookings, particularly for travel further into the future, with an even stronger than usual trend towards last-minute bookings,” said Jordaan.• Smith’s visit to the conference in Rio de Janeiro was as a guest of Iata.
