Africa faces declining aid, rising debt, climate pressure and a weakening global order. Official development assistance, the technical term for foreign aid, fell by 23.1% in 2025, the largest annual contraction on record. It’s projected to decline by a further 5.8% in 2026, before accounting for strain from the current crisis in the Middle East.
UN Trade and Development has also warned that debt servicing is diverting scarce resources from education, health, infrastructure and other development priorities.
We believe that this moment is not only a crisis to survive. It is an opportunity to ask whether development can be renegotiated on more equal terms.
Our views are based on our earlier research on trust, corruption and tax compliance; ongoing work under the Africa-Europe Clusters of Research Excellence on African agency, development financing and sustainability, a collaborative hub connecting researchers, policymakers and practitioners; and recent roundtable discussions with policymakers, scholars, activists and civil society representatives in Ethiopia, Malawi, South Africa and Mauritius.
The question is whether Africa will approach this moment with priorities shaped by donors, creditors and external policy agendas, or with its own policy compass. Agenda 2063, the African Union’s long-term development blueprint, was designed to provide that compass. It speaks of inclusive growth, sustainable development, regional integration, good governance, peace, prosperity and citizen wellbeing.
