The move is mainly a model shift tied to FedEx’s plan to switch from a May fiscal year to a calendar year structure and to separate its Freight business, rather than a negative view on the company’s fundamentals.
It is worth noting that Vernon ranks 1,059 out of more than 12,300 analysts tracked by TipRanks. He has a success rate of 63% on FedEx stock, with an average return per rating of 5.64% over a one-year timeframe.
Analyst Sees a Strong Setup Despite Calendar Shift
Vernon said he is slightly raising his estimates ahead of earnings, pointing to better macro trends, steady pricing across the parcel market, and still high airfreight rates. He expects FedEx to deliver a 3% beat to consensus for its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended in May.
The analyst said the shift from a May fiscal year to a calendar year may cause some short‑term swings as Wall Street resets expectations. However, he sees FedEx moving into the new setup with a strong balance sheet and a low valuation. He estimates the company will start calendar reporting with $55-$60 per share in extra cash, plus about $20 per share in retained Freight stock.
