It’s always worth a check-in. The motto here is that ERA is not predictive, but the toughest ranks last month were the ones where the ERA was sparkling and even some predictive peripherals pointed towards more success. But, in the end, due to projections and other considerations, I probably didn’t rank them as high as some wanted, at least judging by my email inbox.So, let’s look at the players who had the biggest discrepancies between their existing ERA and their projected numbers. We’ll list their ERA from the last rankings, their projected ERA in those rankings (thanks to OOPSY at FanGraphs), and then their ERA over the last 30 days. Let’s limit this to projected ERAs over four, because Shohei Ohtani had an ERA that started with a zero, was projected to have an ERA that started with a two, was ranked very high, and that doesn’t seem in the spirit of this exercise.Did we get them mostly right here?
Revisiting tough ranks NameMay ERAppERADifflast 30 ERABryce Elder1.814.472.665.88Davis Martin1.624.262.647.01Eduardo Rodríguez2.254.832.582.57Spencer Arrighetti1.884.302.424.00Michael McGreevy2.184.602.414.67Nick Martinez1.704.112.414.60Foster Griffin2.124.362.243.00Justin Wrobleski2.424.552.143.14Michael Wacha2.634.692.064.91Shota Imanaga2.324.151.847.52
