An incoming heatwave across Western Europe is expected to lift electricity demand sharply and tighten power system conditions, with temperatures approaching 40 C in several countries and spot prices forecast to spike across multiple markets.
Weather forecasts point to an extreme heat event affecting much of Western Europe next week, with temperatures nearing 40 C in France, Germany, southern England and the Iberian Peninsula, and isolated peaks of up to 42 C in parts of Spain.
The widespread nature of the heatwave is expected to drive a simultaneous rise in electricity demand across the region, mainly due to increased use of cooling systems. Analysts consulted by Montel News estimate that demand in several markets could rise by around 2 GW above levels seen earlier in the week.
Spain is expected to see particularly strong load growth, with Rodrigo García, partner and operations director at consultancy Optimize Energy, estimating that demand could exceed seasonal norms by up to 6 GW, reaching daily peaks of 37–38 GW.
Across Europe, higher demand is expected to translate into upward pressure on wholesale electricity prices. In Spain, analysts expect spot prices to again exceed €100 ($114.3)/MWh, supported by increased gas-fired generation as combined-cycle plants ramp up to meet peak load. Forward markets already reflect tighter expectations, with weekly contracts trading above €104/MWh compared with recent averages of €93.40/MWh.
