The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran came together at the outset of Vance’s book tour, but that’s not the only reason the vice president has been out front defending it while President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are abroad for the G7 summit.Vance was a driving force behind the Iran negotiations and, while he never showed much daylight with Trump publicly, was widely reported to be the most skeptical top administration official about launching the war.
It’s already being described as the “Vance deal,” though it is not always intended as a compliment.The opportunity for Vance, who is still the front-runner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, is that ending the war, opening the Strait of Hormuz, easing energy prices, and shifting the focus back to domestic issues is what’s best for the GOP in this year’s elections and the next one two years from now.But in the meantime, the initial deal is not popular with vast swathes of the Republican Party, who are comparing it unfavorably to former President Barack Obama’s more than a decade ago. (Trump memorably pulled out of that Iran deal during his first term.) The halting public rollout of the memorandum, while attributed to allies’ preferences, gave the unmistakable impression that the administration knew it would not be received well, at least in certain circles.Trump jokingly summed up Vance’s dilemma well. “This way, if it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” he said at a press conference to the laughter of the crowd. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD. You better be careful, JD. He’s going to turn his plane around and get the hell out of here. Yeah, I like that idea. I think it’s a good idea.”While Fox News’s Peter Doocy planted the seed of making Vance the Iran deal fall guy in his question to Trump, this is a big moment for the 41-year-old vice president.Not long after the war started, Rubio seemed to be everywhere promoting it, just as he had been by Trump’s side after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro. This is despite reports that Rubio was himself skeptical the Iranian regime would fall and instead thought the best the war could accomplish was degrading Tehran’s military capacity, which became a major part of his talking points in favor of the operation.All of this led to an uptick in speculation that Rubio could emerge as a rival for the 2028 nomination, even though he has repeatedly expressed support for Vance.Vance was more often deployed to talk about the economy, investigating fraud in government programs, and to reassure voters that the war would not turn into a lengthy, Iraq-like quagmire.“I think one big difference … is that we have a smart president, whereas in the past we’ve had dumb presidents,” Vance told a reporter in March. “And I trust President Trump to get the job done, to do a good job for the American people, and to make sure that the mistakes of the past aren’t repeated.”Now Vance is everywhere and Rubio, the nation’s chief diplomat, looks sidelined. It is a chance for the Marine Corps veteran of the Iraq War to burnish his credentials as a future commander in chief.It comes as Vance is clearly trying to reassemble the coalition that elected Trump, which came under strain both because of the war and lingering inflation concerns. His book Communion is about his Catholic faith, though he was careful to make it accessible to evangelicals. He has walked back his infamous “childless cat ladies” comment and appeared on The View. He went on Megyn Kelly, who has clashed with Trump over Israel and the Middle East, to promote the Iran deal.But the deal also opens up Vance to criticism from hawkish Republicans, who will present him as callow and naive. Some mocked his comment about the “coolest thing” about the Iran talks. Fox News commentator Ben Domenech called him “Hillbilly Obama,” a reference to Vance’s breakout book Hillbilly Elegy, which remains fighting words inside the GOP.TRUMP’S VERY PUBLIC INNER DIALOGUE ON IRANFew Republicans trust the Iranian government, which will have a large say in whether any deal works out. There are also concerns about the proxies Iran funds in the region.At the same time, the war has been broadly unpopular from the beginning, and Republicans receive low marks on the cost of living. Vance gives his party a chance to turn the page.
