Nobody sees a bubble. Everyone owns semis. Everyone fears inflation. Bond vol doesn't. Hmmmm...
The DivergencesThe dollar is strengthening, bond volatility is collapsing and AI remains the market's favorite theme. Yet several unusual divergences are emerging beneath the surface, from the gap between bond and tech volatility to historical analogs that suggest a more turbulent phase may lie ahead.Mighty dollar
Everyone fears a second wave of inflation. Bond volatility doesn't.
Deficits exploding, AI turning inflationary, commodities ripping, and stocks pretending none of it matters. Historically, this…
...momo meltdown continues as S&P rallies to longest win-streak in over a year...
Bond volatility is beginning to diverge from both the VIX and the S&P 500. Still early, but worth watching.
Five increasingly absurd charts suggest markets may have fully detached from rates, history and basic valuation math.
The problem for equity bulls is that violent AI melt-ups become much harder to sustain once rates volatility starts breaking…
