Key events2m agoWill turn out size affect the outcome?5m agoShould Burham wait to make his leadership move?10m agoWhat would a Burnham win in Makerfield mean for Manchester?16m agoOut for the Count21m agoIs Burnham soft left and what does that mean in 2026?25m agoCould shy Reform voters skew the polls?26m agoWhy have the left lost the disadvanted?40m agoIs there a controversy over some Jimmy Savile posters?47m agoOver for Burnham or over for Starmer?52m agoWould a Burnham loss affect his popularity in Manchester?1h agoShould I volunteer for Labour?1h agoBurnham's policies for Makerfield?1h agoSplit between Reform and Restore?1h agoWould Reform beat anyone other than Burnham?1h agoWill women vote for Kenyon?2h agoWho is spending the most and what influence does money have?2h agoWill the football affect the vote?2h agoAre Restore focusing on local issues rather than immigration?2h agoCould Burnham win the seat on Thursday and lose it again at the next election?7h agoWelcome to the ConversationWill turn out size affect the outcome?RichienotsoRich asks: What is your prediction in terms of turn out and what difference could large versus median vs small make to the outcome?
double quotation markHannah: I don’t like making myself a hostage to fortune by predicting anything, but I think that turnout will be relatively high. Turnouts are often lower in byelections than general elections. Burnham ally Lucy Powell was elected in Manchester Central in 2012 on a turnout of just 18% – the lowest since World War Two.
