U.S. Open 2026 Big Board: Who can conquer the test at vaunted Shinnecock Hills?

June 17, 2026 6:00 am EDT Updated The second edition of the U.S. Open was held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in 1896, and it should’ve served as a precursor of things to come as James Foulis’ two-round total of 78-74 on the 4,423-yard course was enough to win by three strokes.It took 90 years for the tournament to return to Shinnecock, but scores weren’t much better in 1986, as Raymond Floyd was the only player to break par on his way to a two-shot triumph.Nine years later, Corey Pavin won at even-par, and another nine years after that, Retief Goosen beat Phil Mickelson by two, as they finished as the only players in the red. And in the most recent expedition around Shinnecock in 2018, it was Brooks Koepka who vanquished the competition with a winning score of 1 over.

Point is, this place ain’t easy.Whether hosting one of the earliest major championships or bewildering modern-era competitors on a venue more than 3,000 yards longer this week, Shinnecock has always shown its teeth – a notion which is unlikely to subside as the best return for the 2026 U.S. Open.Even featuring wider fairways than in previous years, some forecasted winds and devilish green complexes should combine to once again mystify the game’s best players.Those who miss in the proper spots, make the most 8-foot par-saving putts and, yes, even get some lucky breaks, will be the ones vying for this title come Sunday afternoon. Let’s examine 30 players with a chance to succeed at Shinnecock.Expand allCollapse allCall it golf’s version of a perfect storm: The world’s No. 1-ranked player could become the seventh in history to capture the career Grand Slam this Sunday … which also happens to be his 30th birthday … and not to mention it’s Father’s Day, for the dad of two young boys. And yet, there’s been an imperfect storm brewing in Camp Scheffler for the last few months. He’s still playing elite-level golf, but his winless drought is at 11 tournaments, and his growing frustrations have manifested in visible on-course outbursts. With four top-seven finishes in his last five U.S. Open starts, it’s clearly trophy or bust for him this week.Performance last 5 tournamentsT12Memorial 3CJ Cup T14PGA 2Cadillac 2RBC HeritageBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish4 winsStrokes GainedThe bars below represent Scottie Scheffler's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.25-29United StatesPGA TourHere’s an intriguing formula: Take the only player with three PGA Tour titles this season and place him in his favored environment – namely, a tournament where birdies are at a premium, pars are just fine and bogeys are bound to happen. Fitzpatrick has long stated that he prefers difficult setups where 30 under par is never going to happen, and while his 2022 victory at Brookline remains his lone U.S. Open top 10 in 11 starts, it can be argued that he’s never entered any of those with the type of elite-level form he’s shown throughout this year.Performance last 5 tournaments2Canadian Open T36Memorial T14PGA T52Truist 1ZurichBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('22 U.S. Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Matt Fitzpatrick's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35EnglandPGA TourAfter winning The Players Championship and Cadillac Championship, Young was a popular pick to claim last month’s PGA, but perhaps that T26 result was just throwing everyone off the scent for a first major championship triumph in his home state of New York. No, this isn’t exactly a home game for a guy who grew up two hours away without traffic (spoiler alert — there’s always traffic), but it might instill just a little more motivation. Last year’s T4 at Oakmont was, by far, his best U.S. Open showing, and he’s appeared more comfortable in contention seemingly every week since.Performance last 5 tournamentsT46Memorial T26PGA T10Truist 1Cadillac T25RBC HeritageBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish2 ('22 Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Cameron Young's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.25-29United StatesPGA TourWhen a player is categorized as having done “everything but win” a specific tournament, the results should look a little something like Schauffele’s at the U.S. Open: Fifth, sixth, third, fifth, seventh, 14th, 10th, seventh and 12th. That’s nine career starts at this one with nothing outside of the top 15, which doesn’t quite have Phil Mickelson vibes – he finished runner-up six times without a victory – but it’s a record that can at least hang in the same neighborhood. Despite not winning, Schauffele has proven his all-around game is a near-perfect fit for an event that forces players to use every club in the bag.Performance last 5 tournamentsT29Memorial T7PGA T60Truist T12RBC Heritage T9MastersBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish2 winsStrokes GainedThe bars below represent Xander Schauffele's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35United StatesPGA TourFollowing a disappointing Masters where he finished T38, Rahm bounced back with a share of runner-up honors at the PGA Championship last month. For a player who might not seem fully committed to LIV Golf, but also might not have other reasonable options in the short-term, the one thing in his control is performance – and he appears insistent on reminding the masses that he’s one of the game’s best players, whether such play helps his leverage at some point in the future or not. He’s finished top 12 in five of his last six U.S. Open starts, including a 2021 win.Performance last 5 tournaments2Andalucia T16Korea T2PGA T8Virginia 1Mexico CityBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish2 winsStrokes GainedThe bars below represent Jon Rahm's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35SpainLIVOf the four main strokes gained statistics – off the tee, approach, around the green and putting – it’s rare that the third of those ranks very high on the prognosticating priority list, but there’s a definite chance that Shinnecock’s severe green complexes will lead to more misses with the irons and therefore a greater number of short wedge plays. Well, nobody has been better around the greens this season than Fleetwood, who also ranked second in this category at the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago. And let’s not forget: He was runner-up at Shinnecock in 2018, thanks in part to a brilliant final-round 63.Performance last 5 tournamentsT11Canadian Open T4Memorial CutPGA T5Truist T23CadillacBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish2 ('18 U.S. Open, '19 Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Tommy Fleetwood's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35EnglandPGA TourIn all those years discussing his pursuit for the career slam, McIlroy often joked that he’s glad Mother Nature offered him a soft, soggy, birdie-laden affair at Congressional back in 2011, or else it would’ve been this leg – not the Masters – that remained as the most difficult puzzle piece. While it’s true that every one of his 45 career professional victories has come when the winning score is double-digits under par, his record at this one is better than we might think. Following three missed cuts from 2016-18, he’s finished top 10 in six of the last seven.Performance last 5 tournamentsT12Memorial T7PGA T19Truist 1Masters T46PlayersBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish6 winsStrokes GainedThe bars below represent Rory McIlroy's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.36-40Northern IrelandPGA TourKnown as a talented ball-striker with an extremely high floor, it perhaps shouldn’t come as a surprise that Henley’s two most recent wins each occurred in come-from-behind fashion. At last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, his eagle chip on the par-5 16th appeared to be racing past its intended target when it hit the stick and dropped into the bottom of the cup, giving him the lead. And at last month’s Charles Schwab Challenge, he was a mere afterthought on the leaderboard before birdies on his last three holes and another in the playoff to win. If he’s to triumph at a major, it might take a similar formula.Performance last 5 tournamentsT22Memorial 1Charles Schwab CutPGA T49Cadillac T25RBC HeritageBest Previous PerformanceMajor finishT3 ('26 Masters)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Russell Henley's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.36-40United StatesPGA TourThey call it the “nappy factor” – a phenomenon in which new fathers almost instantly find professional golf success. Whether it’s the stress alleviated after a child is born or the #perspective gained in these situations – a notion which has essentially become a cliche – there’s a lengthy list of players taking a few days off from changing diapers and overnight feedings to win a tournament, and Hatton recently added his name to that list. Just weeks after he and his wife, Emily, welcomed a baby girl, he won the LIV Golf event in Spain – his second win in three seasons on that circuit.Performance last 5 tournaments1Andalucia CutPGA 17Virginia T5Mexico City T3MastersBest Previous PerformanceMajor finishT3 ('26 Masters)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Tyrrell Hatton's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35EnglandLIVTo his credit, Burns hasn’t directed any blame or made excuses, but the USGA – or maybe the Golf Gods – might owe him one at the U.S. Open. His back nine last year at Oakmont was riddled with bad breaks, none worse than when his tee shot on the 15th hole found what can only be described as a puddle in the fairway. He was denied relief from two separate rules officials. Playing solid golf once again this year, Burns could be the type of player – not quite a favorite, not quite a long shot – who can win this week.Performance last 5 tournamentsT20Canadian Open T4Memorial T26PGA T8Truist T4RBC HeritageBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish2 ('24 Masters)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Sam Burns's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.25-29United StatesPGA TourThe following was written before the Masters … and again before the PGA Championship … and it’s still relevant entering this one: Reed has, quite literally, nothing else to play for besides the majors right now. His one-year suspension for competing on LIV Golf won’t end until the PGA Tour season is over, and he’s already accrued enough points on the DP World Tour that it appears he’s abandoned it, having failed to play a single event since early March. So far, it’s been a nice luxury to have, as that singular focus has allowed him to finish top 12 in each of the first two majors.Performance last 5 tournamentsT10PGA T12Masters T10Joburg T29Investec SA 1Qatar PGA ChampionshipBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('18 Masters)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Patrick Reed's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35United StatesDP World TourThe U.S. Open can often turn into a slogging, plodding affair, where time seemingly stands still as players scrutinize every detail of each specific scenario. To be fair, this sounds like a regular Thursday morning on the PGA Tour for Cantlay, though it’s less his pace than his calculative processes, which make him such a unique fit for this tournament. To date, that’s manifested itself in a T3 result two years ago and five other top 25s, but his performance recently has been much better than at first blush, as he’s gained with his irons – and often gained a lot – in six straight starts and 10 of his last 12.Performance last 5 tournamentsT17Memorial T35PGA T10Truist T8RBC Heritage T12MastersBest Previous PerformanceMajor finishT3 ('24 U.S. Open, '19 PGA)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Patrick Cantlay's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35United StatesPGA TourThe season-long stats show Lowry has been solid in every individual metric other than around the green, while the ol’ eye test – and our collective memories – remind us that he owns some of the best hands from tricky lies. If that’s not enough, his numbers from the RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto last week showed improvement in this area, which just might be the place that separates contenders from pretenders at Shinnecock, where plenty of greens will be missed, and there’s an onus on getting up and down to save par.Performance last 5 tournamentsT29Canadian Open T22Memorial T44PGA T23Cadillac CutZurichBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('19 Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Shane Lowry's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.36-40IrelandPGA TourTiger Woods often warmed up with a nine-window routine, trying to hit shots that would fit into squares like a strike zone or “The Brady Bunch” credit sequence. From high cuts to low draws and everything in between, the current player who has perhaps taken the “all the shots” torch from Tiger is his buddy JT, who long ago validated himself as one of the game’s top ball-strikers. Recently, that iron play has been good but not great, yet it’s still resulted in five straight top-25 finishes. Even just a minor improvement this week could have him stalking a third career major.Performance last 5 tournamentsT19Memorial T13Charles Schwab T4PGA 13Truist T23CadillacBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish2 winsStrokes GainedThe bars below represent Justin Thomas's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35United StatesPGA TourHere’s the entire list of PGA Tour players who rank top 20 in both around-the-green play and putting: Scottie Scheffler, Eric Cole and McNealy. The latter is a very intriguing semi-darkhorse to contend this week. So far this season, there’s been a lot of, well, what he’s done pretty frequently over the last several years, which is showing a very high floor without often reaching the ceiling. While his best result is a mere 10th, he owns nine top 25s and has been 37th or better in 13 of 14 starts.Performance last 5 tournamentsT10Memorial T18PGA T37Truist T30Cadillac T16RBC HeritageBest Previous PerformanceMajor finishT18 (Twice)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Maverick McNealy's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35United StatesPGA TourFull disclosure: Just a month ago, the 2022 Open Championship winner wouldn’t have sniffed this list, as he entered the PGA Championship with six consecutive missed cuts at the majors. A lot of things happened both before and during that event, though; namely, he started working with swing coach Claude Harmon, and he recovered his vaunted short game, all of which led to a T7 result at Aronimink. It’s a small sample size, and Smith could revert to the player who struggled for the last two years. However, at a venue where wedge play and par-saving putts from 5-10 feet should be paramount, Smith could easily equal last month’s performance.Performance last 5 tournamentsT5Andalucia T16Korea T7PGA T26Virginia T39Mexico CityBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('22 Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Cameron Smith's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35AustraliaLIVIt probably shouldn’t make sense that a player who hasn’t posted a top-10 result since mid-February should appear on a list of potential contenders for the game’s most grueling major championship, but plenty about Matsuyama doesn’t make sense. He often zigs when he should zag and zags when he should zig, playing well when we least expect it and fairing poorly when we do. All of that said, his iron play, short game and putting have largely been very strong during this recent drought, and his U.S. Open record is impressive, with four top 10s and eight top 25s in 13 career appearances.Performance last 5 tournamentsT43Memorial T13Charles Schwab T26PGA 71Truist T53CadillacBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('21 Masters)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Hideki Matsuyama's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35JapanPGA TourOn the scale of improbability, last year’s final-round comeback at Oakmont ranks below the New York Knicks’ turnaround in Game 4 of this year’s NBA Finals, but it’s at least in the conversation. Spaun started the day one shot off the lead, then proceeded to bogey five of his first six holes before a weather delay of more than 90 minutes. When play continued, he posted a back-nine 32, punctuated by a 64-foot, 5-inch birdie putt on the final hole. It’s time to prove he’s more Retief Goosen or Lee Janzen (two-time U.S. Open winners) than Michael Campbell or Steve Jones (one-time winners largely forgotten over time).Performance last 5 tournamentsT12Memorial T6Charles Schwab CutPGA T5Truist T14CadillacBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('25 U.S. Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent J.J. Spaun's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35United StatesPGA TourRiddle me this, golf fans: Over the last several years, the younger Fitzpatrick brother earned a reputation as an up-and-comer on the DP World Tour circuit, but hadn’t won until his final start there at the Indian Open. A few weeks later, he teamed with older bro Matt to win the Zurich Classic and claim his PGA Tour card, and ever since he’s somehow gotten … even better? It defies logic that Alex would join the world’s toughest tour and improve his results, but that’s exactly what’s happened, with three top-10 finishes in five starts since claiming membership.Performance last 5 tournamentsT20Canadian Open T6Memorial T75PGA 4Truist T9CadillacBest Previous PerformanceMajor finishT17 ('23 Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Alex Fitzpatrick's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.25-29EnglandPGA TourHe might not be recognized on the same level as other world-class players, but Gotterup has won more often and more frequently than many of them, with two wins this year and four in just over the last 24 months. That suggests he has a sporadically high ceiling, but it’s simply not the case. Entering this week, the New Jersey native ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season, which remains the greatest barometer of performance. In an age where parity exists beyond the top two players, it’s difficult to find proven closers, but Gotterup has already earned that reputation.Performance last 5 tournamentsT27Memorial T10PGA T14Truist T38Cadillac T25RBC HeritageBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish3 ('25 Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Chris Gotterup's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.25-29United StatesPGA TourRose has exuded confidence since becoming the first PGA Tour player to invest in the new McLaren irons, even if the larger public had concerns. Those subsided with a T10 at the PGA Championship and T12 at the Memorial Tournament, each of which featured iron play that was more than a stroke better per round than the field average. The 2013 U.S. Open winner owns five career top 10s at this event, but only two since that victory and – even more surprisingly – five missed cuts in his last six appearances.Performance last 5 tournamentsCutCanadian Open T12Memorial T10PGA T45Truist T65CadillacBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('13 U.S. Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Justin Rose's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.40+EnglandPGA TourSometimes a missed cut on the eve of a major championship can be a blessing in disguise. Before failing to reach the weekend at the RBC Canadian Open, Noren was enjoying a sustained run of impressive play that included 11 straight made cuts. Though he posted just a pair of top 10s during that span, he did finish 32nd or better in all but one of those events, suggesting a potential floor which is much higher than what he showed north of the border this past week, when a second-round 75 – which tied for his worst single-round score of the season – sealed his fate.Performance last 5 tournamentsCutCanadian Open 9Memorial T26PGA T31Truist T7CadillacBest Previous PerformanceMajor finishT6 ('17 Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Alex Noren's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.40+SwedenPGA TourOne year ago, on Saturday evening with a date in the final U.S. Open pairing set for the next day, Scott talked about how all the work he’s put into his game well into his mid-40s is single-mindedly geared toward winning another major championship. It didn’t happen at Oakmont, as a final-round 79 left him outside the top 10, but the Aussie’s ball-striking numbers are once again enviable entering this week, and he understands that window is closing more with each passing major. Hard to believe, but the soon-to-be 46-year-old would be the oldest U.S. Open champion ever.Performance last 5 tournamentsT12Memorial CutPGA T24Truist T4Cadillac T24MastersBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('13 Masters)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Adam Scott's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.40+AustraliaPGA TourIt can be argued that Rai won last month’s PGA Championship in much the same way others have won U.S. Open titles in the past – by limiting his mistakes and making a few clutch putts when it mattered the most. That seems like a nice prerequisite for contending this week, and there’s a fair comparison to be made between one of the PGA Tour’s shortest hitters this season and Corey Pavin, the 1995 champion at Shinnecock who was similarly short off the tee but a dogged competitor with a full arsenal of shots throughout the entire bag.Performance last 5 tournamentsCutCanadian Open T19Memorial 1PGA 5Myrtle Beach T24ZurichBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('26 PGA)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Aaron Rai's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35EnglandPGA TourWe collectively tend to become overexuberant at the prospect of the Next Big Thing in golf, whether that’s been Nick Dunlap, Gordon Sargent or Luke Clanton over the last few years. Each of those young players has seen his share of professional struggles, which should have us at least cautiously optimistic about Koivun, but memories are short, and we largely remain long on optimism. Playing his last event before turning pro, the world’s No. 1-ranked amateur is the greatest putting phenom since some kid named Spieth some 15 years ago. It’ll be fun to watch Koivun in this arena against the world’s best.Performance last 5 tournamentsT10NCAA finals T10NCAA regional 1SEC 1Ford Collegiate 1Mason RudolphBest Previous PerformanceMajor finishCut ('25 U.S. Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Jackson Koivun's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.20-24United StatesAmateurThere’s perhaps never been a better description of a professional golfer’s game than Spieth comparing his play to Whac-A-Mole before the PGA Championship – essentially explaining how every time he fixes one aspect of it, a different issue pops up. While it appears that he’s not quite where he needs to be, Spieth was recently just one of 15 players on the PGA Tour with a positive strokes gained number in all four major categories, which is a paean to his ability to quickly whack whatever isn’t working at a given moment.Performance last 5 tournamentsCutMemorial T19CJ Cup T18PGA T52Truist T18CadillacBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish3 winsStrokes GainedThe bars below represent Jordan Spieth's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.30-35United StatesPGA TourAlright, so we’re not exactly in Sox/Pats territory this week, but usually when Bradley returns to anywhere in the Northeast, good things happen – from a pair of wins in Connecticut to another just outside Philadelphia. The erstwhile U.S. Ryder Cup captain has admitted to a post-defeat hangover for the first few months of this season, but he’s started playing better golf recently. While his combo of long and straight off the tee works on every course in the world, it should be especially beneficial at Shinnecock, even with wider fairways than we’ve seen in past editions of this event here.Performance last 5 tournamentsT19Memorial T35Charles Schwab CutPGA T19Truist T49CadillacBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish1 win ('11 PGA)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Keegan Bradley's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.36-40United StatesPGA TourBeware the injured golfer? Koepka certainly hopes so. Just a couple of strokes off the pace at the midway point of last week’s RBC Canadian Open, the 2018 U.S. Open champion at Shinnecock developed a hand injury before the third round. “I don’t know what it is,” he said. "I’m struggling to grip the club with my ring finger and pinkie finger, so can’t grip it. … Hopefully we’ll figure it out.” He played through the pain Saturday, but withdrew before Sunday’s round, leaving his prospects for another successful trip to this venue very much in doubt.Performance last 5 tournamentsWDCanadian Open T14CJ Cup T55PGA T11Myrtle Beach CutZurichBest Previous PerformanceMajor finish5 winsStrokes GainedThe bars below represent Brooks Koepka's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.36-40United StatesPGA TourWe don’t have to ask this PGA Tour veteran what playing in the U.S. Open means to him — we only need to know the backstory of his qualification. As an eight-time winner who’s played this major a dozen times already, he easily could’ve focused on the rest of his schedule. Instead, he went to Springfield, Ohio, shot 68-65 and got into the field – then contended for the title in Canada. Still just two years removed from a runner-up at The Open and a top 10 at the PGA Championship, Horschel could be trending in the right direction at the perfect time.Performance last 5 tournamentsT15Canadian Open CutMemorial T42Charles Schwab CutCJ Cup CutPGABest Previous PerformanceMajor finishT2 ('24 Open)Strokes GainedThe bars below represent Billy Horschel's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.36-40United StatesPGA TourLook, there are well-known, elite talents who didn’t make this top-30 list, but we all know the leaderboard isn’t going to mirror the OWGR, so let’s have a little fun and take some chances. While Dossey hasn’t been the Korn Ferry Tour’s best player this season, he has been one of the more consistent, as his five top 10s rank him second on the points list among non-winners. The 28-year-old Texas native is also inside the top 25 in off-the-tee, approach and putting statistics, making him a long shot to watch out for this week.Performance last 5 tournamentsCutBMW Pro-Am T7UNC Health T3Visit Knoxville T27Colonial Life CutTulumBest Previous PerformanceMajor finishFirst majorStrokes GainedThe bars below represent Cooper Dossey's percent rank when compared to all 2026 PGA Championship competitors.25-29United StatesKorn Ferry TourJun 17, 2026Connections: Sports EditionSpot the pattern. Connect the termsFind the hidden link between sports terms