Simeon Dyankov, head of Bulgaria’s Fiscal Council and former Finance Minister, estimates that the country’s total budget deficit for 2025 will reach around 5.5 percent of GDP, warning that the figure could even approach 6 percent depending on final calculations. Speaking on BNT, he said the projected shortfall corresponds to roughly 2.2 to 3.4 billion euros.
Dyankov noted that Bulgaria’s position under an excessive deficit procedure places it in a group alongside countries such as Belgium and France, arguing that this is not necessarily alarming in itself. He also recalled that Bulgaria faced a similar procedure in 2010, when he was finance minister, and exited it within roughly a year and a half.
However, he stressed that faster fiscal correction would require stronger political will and structural changes. He said “this government has suddenly been given enormous tolerance”, suggesting that authorities could gradually reduce the deficit by around half a percentage point per year, depending on policy choices.
At the same time, he questioned whether there is sufficient capacity for reform within the current administration, arguing that many key positions are held by former ministers and deputy ministers connected to previous budgets. He said “the big question, however, is whether there are reformers”, expressing doubt that meaningful structural change is underway.
