The first big shock of the 2026 World Cup happened on Monday — in a game without a goal. Cape Verde, a country of just under half a million people off the western coast of continental Africa, held Spain, the second-ranked team in the world, to a 0-0 draw.Spain was heavily favored entering the match and dominated play with a 27-6 edge in total shots and 74 percent of the possession, but Spain could not break a resolute defense from Cape Verde. The Blue Sharks held on for a draw in their first World Cup match.But just how big a surprise was it? Let’s try to put this in context.For starters, before the match, the betting odds put a draw at roughly 10-to-1. Those odds imply the likelihood of a draw was priced at roughly 9 percent, so it was certainly unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.According to BetMGM, only 10 percent of the tickets on the match predicted a draw, and those bets amounted to just 1 percent of the money. A whopping 94 percent of the money wagered was on a Spain win, even with La Roja priced at -1000. Jeff Sherman, VP of risk management and oddsmaking at Westgate SuperBook, and Borgata sportsbook director Thomas Gable noted that a Spain win was heavily used in parlays that all went poof with the result.Spain entered the World Cup as the betting favorite to win the tournament and ranked second in FIFA’s official rankings. The Spanish had won Euro 2024 and have 18-year-old superstar Lamine Yamal, who subbed into the match in the 71st minute. It was Yamal’s first game back since suffering a hamstring injury in April.Spain’s draw made France the new tournament favorite in the odds, although it’s still very close. France is +450 (9-to-2) at multiple sportsbooks with Spain at +500 (5-to-1). It has affected Spain’s outlook a bit, but not drastically. The only time Spain won the World Cup (2010), it lost its opening match to Switzerland, and four years ago, Argentina did the same after losing its opener to Saudi Arabia.Cape Verde was ranked 67th and had never played in a World Cup before. Only Ghana (73), Curaçao (82), Haiti (83) and New Zealand (85) entered the tournament with lower rankings. However, the Blue Sharks qualified for this tournament by winning a six-team African group that included Cameroon, ranked No. 44 in the world. Cameroon has made the World Cup eight times and is one of the traditional powers in Africa.The Blue Sharks didn’t allow a goal in five qualifying matches at home, including a 1-0 win against Cameroon. To get in ahead of Cameroon shows Cape Verde has some quality.Defender Logan Costa plays for Villarreal in Spain’s La Liga. Steven Moreira was Major League Soccer’s Defender of the Year in 2024 with the Columbus Crew. Both played the full 90 minutes on Sunday on Cape Verde’s back line.While the resumes of Spain’s squad, which features some of the best players in the world, transcend those of the few bright spots on Cape Verde, there is high-level professional quality on the underdogs. This wasn’t the same as the Germany-Curaçao match on Sunday that ended 7-1 (but included Curaçao scoring on the four-time world champions with a tying goal in the first half).Even after the disappointing draw, Spain is still 98 percent likely to make the knockout stage, according to The Athletic’s World Cup predictor. Spain is 58 percent likely to win its group before Uruguay and Saudi Arabia kick off later on Monday. Cape Verde is now 52 percent to advance, a suddenly realistic possibility.Jun 15, 2026Connections: Sports EditionSpot the pattern. Connect the termsFind the hidden link between sports terms