AI helped 100,000 developers ship 30% more software. The number of people using it didn't move. Building got cheap. Being worth using didn't.
A 2026 NBER working paper followed more than 100,000 developers across four app marketplaces after they picked up AI coding tools. The tools worked. With the most autonomous of them, commits jumped 180%. Then the gain bled out downstream — about 50% more projects, only 30% more releases.
Total usage of what they shipped: unchanged.
More code. More releases. The same number of people using any of it.
The pattern is simple:
AI is increasing software output.
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