The UFC is setting up shop at the White House this weekend for Sunday’s Freedom 250 event, which features two title fights among seven matchups.I’m excited for the spectacle, and we should see some entertaining fights, including the headliner featuring Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje for the lightweight title. I’ll be breaking down that matchup, the co-main event and another one of my favorites below.If you’d like to chat about these or any other fights on the slate, leave a comment. Let’s dive in!Ilia Topuria vs. Justin GaethjeThe lightweight title is up for grabs as one of the pound-for-pound elites, Ilia Topuria, will defend his belt against interim champ Justin Gaethje.Ilia TopuriaJustin GaethjeOdds-550+400SSLpM4.816.48SApM3.837.05Striking Defense64%51%Takedowns/15 min.1.960.33Takedown Defense93%74%Topuria (17-0-0) hasn’t fought since last June, when he knocked out Charles Oliveira in the first round to earn that title. He was previously the featherweight champion and was coming off back-to-back KOs over Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, which is about as strong a level of competition as there is in the sport.While I think a couple of fighters can challenge Topuria, including Arman Tsarukyan and Islam Makhachev, I’m less sure of whether Gaethje can be a threat.Gaethje (27-5-0) has been one of the most entertaining fighters in the division for the past decade, but the 37-year-old tends to excel in brawls because of his offensive style. Gaethje’s defense has never been at the forefront of his game, and he absorbs a whopping 7.05 significant strikes per minute while defending at 51 percent.We have seen Gaethje knocked out only three times, but it’s difficult to shed the memory of him lying unconscious at the end of his BMF championship matchup in 2024 against Max Holloway, who put his lights out with seconds remaining in the contest.Topuria, 29, is fully capable of shutting off his opponents’ lights as well; he has knocked down seven of his nine opponents in the UFC. He’s one of the best boxers in the sport, with strong technique and power.I’ve had concerns with Topuria at points in his career for his lack of volume, his questionable cardio and perhaps his durability. But he has largely proven those concerns to be minor, and outside of a couple moments, Topuria hasn’t faced a whole lot of adversity.I don’t think Gaethje is completely out of the fight. But Topuria carries a high floor of offensive production, meaning he should be able to land cleanly and land often because of Gaethje’s lack of defensive acumen. That could be enough to score an early knockout, or win deep.Additionally, Topuria is a much better wrestler and submission grappler. He may choose not to wrestle, but if he can secure top position with any frequency, I wouldn’t be surprised if Topuria was able to lock up a submission.If this fight stays standing, Gaethje can at least push enough of a pace to land strikes of his own. He has dangerous leg kicks, some of the best in the division. He has some power. We’ve seen Topuria hurt badly before and nearly knocked out by Jai Herbert in 2022.If Gaethje simply stays conscious, he has the potential to pressure, force a brawl and hope for variance to aid him in landing damaging shots that change the momentum. It won’t be my pick, but I respect Gaethje’s survivability instincts enough to give him a chance at an upset.As far as a betting recommendation, I don’t have a strong one. Topuria is -550 to win, which is more than I’d like to pay, though you could use him in a parlay. Betting him to win by KO feels like the most obvious choice, but he’s juiced up there as well, at -235.