Bitcoin (BTC) faces as much as 20% additional downside from current levels, according to Bitwise Head of Research Europe André Dragosch.
In an interview with The Block's Gareth Jenkinson at BTC Prague on Thursday, Dragosch pointed to a cluster of structural supports forming beneath the asset’s spot price, including the 200-week moving average at roughly $61,000, realized price near $56,000, and long-term holder cost basis at approximately $48,000, which he described as the "max pain" downside scenario.
According to Dragosch, Bitwise’s experimental “bottom-cycle probability model” began ticking higher last week even as onchain indicators remained below the extremes typically associated with prior cycle lows.
Bitcoin fell roughly 28% from a May high near $82,000 to below $60,000 during the latest drawdown, according to The Block’s BTC price page. On Friday, the asset traded over $63,300, up 0.9% over the prior 24 hours, with a market capitalization of about $1.3 trillion.
Broader market research echoes a cautious read on cycle positioning. Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn said bitcoin has not yet bottomed, noting that only four of 13 historical bottoming indicators have been triggered so far.
