China’s coal power output rose in early 2026, fueling concerns that last year’s drop in power-sector emissions may be temporary despite record growth in renewable energy.
Data from China’s National Energy Administration suggests that 2025 marked a turning point in China’s shift away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy. Installed renewable energy capacity, including wind, solar, biomass and hydro, reached 2,340 gigawatts, accounting for nearly 60 percent of China’s total generating capacity. Combined wind and solar capacity surpassed thermal power capacity for the first time.
The rapid expansion of renewables helped drive the first annual decline in carbon emissions from China’s power sector in more than a decade, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The trend appeared to reinforce expectations that China could meet its goal of peaking its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Coal-fired generation, however, rose again during the first four months of this year, pushing power-sector emissions higher, though they remain below 2024 levels. Analysts say the rebound raises questions about whether last year’s decline represents a lasting structural shift.
