Get free access to the most comprehensive World Cup coverage in The Athletic app.At long last, the United States begins its World Cup 2026 campaign on home soil, opening the tournament against Paraguay just outside Los Angeles on Friday, June 12.The United States, Mexico and Canada were awarded hosting rights back in 2018, and much of the anticipation surrounding this generation has been framed through the lens of 2026. Even the U.S.’s run to the round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup felt like a stepping stone toward this moment.Now the wait is over. At the largest World Cup in history, featuring 48 teams, the expanded format offers a slightly more forgiving path through the group stage.But that does not diminish the importance of the opener. With valuable points and early momentum at stake, the U.S. has an opportunity to set the tone for its tournament — and strengthen its position in Group D from the very start.What you need to know about the matchupGroup D: United States (FIFA ranking 17) vs Paraguay (FIFA ranking 41)Venue: Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium), Inglewood, Calif.Date: Friday, June 12Kick off: 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PTU.S. pathway: Qualified automatically as a host nation. Drawn from Pot 1.Paraguay pathway: Qualification in sixth place from CONMEBOL, the governing body of football in South America. Record: 7 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats. Drawn from Pot 3.Staff predictionsPaul Tenorio: U.S. 1, Paraguay 0 – Paraguay is such a good defensive team, I think they make this game really tough on the U.S. Ultimately, I think one goal will make the difference: 1-0 U.S. to push the Americans forward with some momentum in the group stage.Henry Bushnell: U.S. 2, Paraguay 1 -The Americans are confident. Everyone is healthy. Pre-tournament friendlies provided boosts. Of course, an early Paraguay goal on Friday could change everything, but I think the U.S. will rise to the occasion.Tom Bogert: U.S. 2, Paraguay 0 – Line-breaking passes from the midfield to get the ball to Christian Pulisic is a key to unlocking this game. The wingbacks will be critical as well, especially the moments they have space to attack.Felipe Cardenas: U.S. 2, Paraguay 2 – The U.S. can’t keep a clean sheet but I think they’ll find ways to score. Paraguay will be forced into a transition game and will walk away with a big point.OddsThe U.S. is favored to win Friday’s match. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, the USMNT is -110 to get the win (bet $11 to profit $10).Even though that’s enough to give the Americans favorite status, it implies they win the match barely more than 50 percent of the time.A draw is viewed as the next most likely outcome at +240 on FanDuel and +245 on DraftKings.A Paraguay win is +320 on DK and +330 on FD.In others words, the odds are saying it’s roughly a 50/30/20 split between a U.S. win, a draw or a Paraguay win, respectively.The Athletic’s projection tool gives the Americans a 39 percent chance of winning Group D. It also says the U.S. has a 97 percent chance of advancing to the knockouts with a win. That drops to 81 percent with a draw and 64 percent with a loss.Sergiño Dest takes a shot at USMNT training as Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie observe (Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)If U.S. beats Paraguay it will be because…The Americans turn possession and pitch control into quality chances, or at least turnovers that aren’t in vulnerable places.