A Spanish football club at the center of a prediction market controversy has denied placing a nearly $600,000 bet on Kalshi to hedge against the financial hit of dropping to a lower tier in one of the world’s top soccer leagues—a fate that hinged on the outcome of a single match.
Club Atlético Osasuna came under the spotlight after Semafor reported that it had bet against itself as a way to offset economic losses that come with relegation, a term that refers to a team being demoted to an inferior league. Osasuna was set to play against Getafe FC on May 23 as part of LaLiga, Spain’s top professional soccer league. If it lost, its ranking—and broadcasting revenues—would suffer.
Earlier this month, reports surfaced of an Osasuna-related contract on Kalshi, a top prediction markets platform that allows users to bet on sports and a wide variety of other real-world events. The contract invited bettors to place wagers on whether Osasuna would be relegated from LaLiga in the 2025-2026 season. Activity soon exploded on the platform as nearly 3.5 million contracts were purchased, driving the total value of all bets up to $591,600.
Rumors soon emerged that Osasuna had helped drive that volume, but the Navarre-based club denied this was the case.
