At the SNEC 2026 conference in Shanghai, BloombergNEF (BNEF) lead solar analyst Jenny Chase re-iterated a sobering projection: solar deployment will slow this year before returning to a much more conservative growth trajectory. The defining question facing the industry now is clear: what trends will step up to pull solar growth back upward?
In late 2025, BloombergNEF (BNEF) projected that 2026 would be the first down year for solar panel installations in two decades. As of its presentation at SNEC 2026 in Shanghai, with Chinese capacity installations slowing significantly versus the prior year at this point, it looks like this projection may come true.
BNEF solar analyst Jenny Chase examined why the ongoing wars have a limited effect on solar, and what might pull the solar module industry from its doldrums.
Source: China National Energy Association via Bloomberg
Although there are multiple energy wars (Ukraine and the Middle East) ongoing, solar power is mostly indirectly affected. Both of these global events are heavily affecting oil, which — according to the International Energy Agency — represents only 2.6% of all electricity generation. However, the war in Ukraine began with conflict over natural gas resources, and the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility, in Qatar, has been taken out by Iranian missiles.
