Park Jun-hee
I ask the hard questions, so you don't have to 🗞️📝
Can South Korea reach knockout stage? Much hinges on opener on Friday South Korea captain Son Heung-min waves during a training session held at Chivas Verde Valle in Zapopan, Mexico, Wednesday. (Yonhap) In its 12 World Cup appearances — the most by any Asian nation — South Korea has reached the knockout stage three times: in 2002, 2010 and 2022. In 2002, buoyed by home support, it reached the semifinals and finished fourth, becoming the first — and still the only — Asian nation to go that far.Now, with the 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the United States, the question on every Korean soccer fan’s mind is: Can the Taegeuk Warriors make another deep run this time? Or, for the more cautious, can they advance beyond the group stage?Before making any predictions, however, there is one major change to understand. This World Cup will look very different from any that came before it.For the first time in history, 48 nations have qualified for the World Cup, expanding the tournament from 32 teams and giving more countries a chance to compete on the sport’s biggest stage.Under the expanded format, the 48 participating nations are divided into 12 groups of four teams. The top two teams from each group automatically advance, while the eight best third-place finishers will also progress to a 32-team knockout stage. Cho Gue-seung (left) and Son Heung-min attend a training session ahead of their game against the Czech Republic, which is slated for Friday. (Yonhap) Drawn into Group A, South Korea will face the Czech Republic, co-host Mexico and South Africa in the opening round of the tournament.Among those fixtures, the opener against the Czechs, which by Korea time will be 11 a.m. Friday, is widely regarded as the key match that could define South Korea’s World Cup campaign.Soccer statistics firm Opta gave the Taegeuk Warriors a 42.9 percent chance of triumph in the opener and, based on its tournament simulations, projected South Korea to advance to the knockout stage as the runner-up in Group A.That forecast aligns with the outlook of Lee Young-pyo, a former national team defender and 2002 World Cup hero, who also predicted South Korea would finish second in the group and reach the knockout stage.Speaking to reporters Monday, the player-turned-analyst said Mexico will likely win Group A, given that the team will play on home soil and its recent performance.“And it’s highly likely that Korea will finish second. That would be a very good start,” Lee told reporters during his visit to the national team’s training center near Guadalajara, Mexico. The South Korean men's national soccer team trains. (Yonhap) Lee pointed out that beating the Czech Republic in the first game on Friday will put the team “on the right track.” He said that grabbing those three points will be crucial, noting that anything less would put more pressure on the rest of the campaign.Apart from tactics and talent, Lee sees preparation as another area where Korea could have an advantage. The team spent three weeks at a high-altitude training camp in Utah before continuing its buildup in Mexico, giving players more time to adjust to the thinner air in Guadalajara, where the match will take place. The Czechs, meanwhile, plan to arrive only on the eve of the match after holding camp in Texas.However, not everyone shares that optimism.Former South Korea captain Park Ji-sung said expectations "should remain realistic" despite the positive outlook surrounding the team. The Taegeuk Warriors train. (Yonhap) In an interview with sports Youtuber Gamst on Monday, Park said he believes a group-stage record of one win, one draw and one loss is the most likely outcome for the team.Asked which of South Korea's group-stage matches would be most important, Park pointed to the opener against the Czech Republic, describing it as a "disciplined and well-organized team" capable of making the game difficult for opponents.Park also pointed to Korea's history of producing strong performances against European teams at the World Cup, noting that matchup could work in the team's favor.Korea's World Cup history against European opposition includes its first-ever World Cup victory over Germany in 2018, eliminating the defending champions from the tournament. In 2022, the Taegeuk Warriors stunned Portugal 2-1 to qualify for the knockout stage. South Korean soccer players train before Friday's game. (Yonhap) Korean players' growing presence in European soccer offers another reason for confidence. More than half of the squad plays abroad, with 15 on the 26-man roster competing at some of the sport’s highest levels.Before joining Los Angeles Football Club in August 2025, Captain Son Heung-min spent 10 years with Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League. His achievements include winning the Premier League Golden Boot in the 2021-22 season and captaining his club to the UEFA Europa League title in 2025.Paris Saint-Germain midfielder Lee Kang-in was part of the team’s European treble during the 2024-25 season, lifting the French league title, the domestic cup title and the prestigious UEFA Champions League trophy.At the back, Kim Min-jae remains one of South Korea's most important players. The Bayern Munich center back has played 79 games for the national team and is widely regarded as one of Asia's top defenders. His physicality and ability to marshal the back line will be key to Korea's hopes of advancing from the group stage, according to observers.A simulation conducted by a research team led by professor James Reade of the University of Reading ranked Korea 20th among the tournament’s 48 participants. The rankings were based on 10,000 tournament simulations designed to project the likelihood of each team's success.BetOnline and Lucky Rebel, prominent online sportsbooks catering to international and US bettors, ranked Korea as being 33rd most likely to win the World Cup out of the 48 participants.
