With expectations of a 4%-plus print, all eyes are on this morning's CPI report as we move past April's shutdown-related distortions.Headline CPI rose 0.5% MoM (as expected) in May, lifting prices 4.2% YoY (also as expected). The first 4%-plus print since April 2023...Core Goods prices deflated in May while Energy remains a notable contributor...CPI details:Headline: The all items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the year, following a 2.8-percent increase over the 12 months ending April. The energy index increased 23.5 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 3.1 percent over the last yearThe index for energy rose 3.9% in May, after rising 3.8% in April and 10.9% in March. The energy index accounted for over 60% of the monthly all items increase. The index for shelter also increased in May, rising 0.3 percent. The food index increased 0.2% over the month as the food at home index rose 0.1% and the food away from home index increased 0.3%.This is the first deflationary print for goods prices in a year...Household furnishings and Supplies -0.042%Transportation Commodities less motor oil: -0.49%Medical Care Commodities -0.54%Drug prices are down for the fifth month in a row...Core CPI rose less than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp), lifting prices by 2.9% YoY (as expected), up from April's 2.8% YoY and the highest since Sept 2025...Core Services costs are accelerating...Core: The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in May.Indexes that increased over the month include communication, airline fares, medical care, personal care, and recreation.The shelter index increased 0.3% over the month.
Americans' Real Wages Are Shrinking As CPI Tops 4% For First Time In 3 Years
Services costs are accelerating but Goods prices deflated for the first time in a year...















