The JM Smucker Company, home to Folgers coffee, Hostess twinkies, and of course, Smucker’s jam, reported its fourth quarter and fiscal year earnings Tuesday. The company said its net sales for FY26 were up 4%, with Uncrustables — those frozen PB&Js — as one standout. However, looking forward, the packaged goods company projects a decrease in net sales in the year ahead. Smucker’s cited “a dynamic and evolving external environment.”One big challenge for packaged food companies? Americans are leaning away from eating packaged food.“Many people are thinking about healthier foods, walking away from processed foods,” said Craig Rowley, partner at the consulting firm Korn Ferry.Also, a growing chunk of the population is now taking GLP-1 drugs, which means they’re generally eating less food.Rowley also pointed out people who are feeling stretched financially are more likely to trade down when they’re buying a jar of jelly.“Many of these people are going to buy the grocery store's private label, which can be 10, 20, 30% cheaper than a national brand,” he said.Rowley also pointed out the war in Iran and the high price of oil has pushed up companies’ shipping costs. Meanwhile, climate change has thrown a wrench into growing some of the foods that go in these packages. “Everything starts in the ground, even a Hostess Twinkie,” said Phil Lempert, founder of Supermarket Guru. “If you look at what's what's gone on with coffee in Brazil because of climate change, if you look at what's gone on with bananas.”Bananas will struggle to grow as temperatures rise. And coffee crops in Brazil have been hurt by drought. “Just about all our crops globally really have to be reimagined,” Lempert said.Meanwhile, on-again, off-again tariffs have forced company leaders have to make decisions in an uncertain environment.“Three different tariff regimes in the last 12 months have made locking in costs for a lot of packaged food manufacturers … next to impossible,” said Ed Johnson, a partner at Deloitte Consulting focused on the consumer industry.Johnson said to plan for the future, companies are doing lots of scenario brainstorming. For example, envisioning alternate supply chains. “It's all about trying to plan for the different options or different potential outcomes on the variables that you're aware are in flux,” he said.Packaged foods companies have had to do a lot of this kind of scenario planning since the pandemic, Johnson said. So while it might be stressful, at least they’re used to it.