Arthur Hayes published a macro thesis Monday arguing that Bitcoin's next major rally will not begin until AI stocks collapse, because the capital wave funding data-center construction and three pending mega-IPOs has absorbed the very liquidity Bitcoin requires to advance.
In a lengthy essay titled “Reality Test” posted Monday on his Substack, Hayes said he has cleared his entire high-beta altcoin book and rotated Maelstrom’s equity portfolio into US energy producers. He exited Hyperliquid (HYPE), NEAR, Worldcoin (WLD), and Zcash (ZEC) during the prior week. The position changes were disclosed piecemeal on X; the essay provides the full macro rationale.
Bitcoin was trading around $61,680, down roughly 2.7% over the trailing 24 hours, per CoinGecko.
Hayes opens by addressing a question he says he got wrong: why did Bitcoin fail to rally even as US dollar liquidity expanded starting in late 2024?
His answer: AI absorbed the dollars. Hayes estimates that roughly $1.5 trillion in debt was issued by hyperscalers and AI infrastructure companies between November 2022 and mid-2026, matching almost exactly the $1.5 trillion rise in M2 money supply over the same period. “AI sucked up all created dollars,” he writes. “Bitcoin never had a chance.”
