A surge of almost 20 per cent in third-level college enrolments over the next eight years will require additional annual funding of more than €200 million per year, Minister for Higher Education James Lawless will tell the Cabinet on Tuesday. Lawless will bring a memo to Government on the publication of Projections of Demand for Higher Education 2025 to 2045, a report examining trends over the next two decades. In particular, it is forecasting strong growth in full-time third-level enrolments over the next decade, with a peak of just over a quarter of a million students in Irish colleges. The report has found that higher education institutions look set to increase their student numbers by between 33,000 and 39,000 between now and 2034.That will see a peak of up to 250,857 students, an increase of some 19 per cent on current levels. Undergraduate enrolments are projected to rise by almost 27,000 over the next eight years.This is being driven primarily by demographic trends, particularly the large cohort born between 2007 and 2012 who are now reaching higher education age.Postgraduate enrolments are expected to rise by between 6,000 and 12,000 students over the next decade, with future growth closely linked to trends in non-EU international student demand.A Government source said the projections point to significant future funding pressures across the higher education sector, with additional exchequer investment requirements estimated at €50 million by 2027, rising to about €220 million annually by 2033 to ensure the sector can meet growing enrolment demand.Another key finding of the report is that an increased number of international students will be strategically important to Ireland’s higher education funding model.It warned that any slowdown in non-EU enrolment growth could create additional funding pressures for the State.There are an estimated 32,900 students from outside the EU enrolled in higher education institutions in Ireland with the three largest cohorts understood to come from India, the United States and China. The number includes 3,000 students from Britain, who have their tuition fees paid under a free fees scheme under the Common Travel Area agreement. The key driver of this growth is rising numbers of Irish school leavers reaching college age, linked to higher birth rates between 2007 and 2012. The modern birth peak was in 2008 with more than 75,000 new births in Ireland. There were similarly high figures in 2009 and 2100. However, since then the annual birth rate in the State has consistently fallen from the baby boom peak. In 2023 the annual figure for births was 54,526, a fall of more than 20,000 from the 2008 peak. With a declining national birth trend over the last 15 years, there is projected to be a comparable reduction in demand for third-level places in the years following 2034.The figures are expected to fall over the following decade before reaching a plateau in 2045. The overall budget for Irish universities and third-level colleges is more than €2 billion annually, comprised of core funding, pension and capital costs, the free fees initiative, as well as student support and maintenance.