Graham Platner is still expected to win the Maine Senate Democratic primary. But can he keep his momentum through another controversy?Show Caption
Karen Heck, the former mayor of Waterville, Maine, has been one of Senate Democratic candidate Graham Platner’s loyal supporters. She stuck with him after it came out that he had a tattoo of a skull and crossbones that resembled a Nazi symbol. She stood by him after the emergence of old Reddit posts in which he asked "Why don’t black people tip?" and said that rural White Americans "actually are" racist and stupid. (He has since covered up the tattoo and apologized for the posts, saying he was struggling mentally after returning from the military.)Heck is planning to vote for Platner in the Maine primary on June 9, less than a week after reports said that he had exchanged sexual messages with several women outside his marriage.She believes his opponents, including Republicans and some Democrats, are attacking his character because they don’t like his populist economic message."Whatever happened between Graham and Amy is personal business," Heck, 74, said in an interview with USA TODAY, referring to Platner's wife, Amy Gertner. "They can't attack his policies because they're popular, so they're going to attack him over and over again."With major leads in the polls, no major opponents campaigning against him and plenty of supporters like Heck, Maine political pundits said that Platner, an oyster farmer and political newcomer, is still likely to win the Democratic nomination on Tuesday, June 9.But the onslaught of embarrassing revelations may slow his momentum against Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, in a crucial race that could help determine control over the U.S. Senate.Will Platner still win the primary?Maine has voted against Presidential Donald Trump in the last three presidential elections. But Collins is a moderate who has proved resilient, winning five terms despite credible challengers. This year, winning her seat is a key priority for Democrats in their hopes to flip four GOP seats and take the Senate.Gov. Janet Mills, 78, was the presumed favorite in the primary, supported by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. But she struggled to gain support at a time when many voters had concerns about her age and wanted something new. Platner, 41, galvanized supporters who wanted a younger, blunter and more Bernie Sanders-style of politician, despite having no prior political experience. With Platner leading Mills 64% to 26% in the polls and by over $6 million in campaign dollars, Mills suspended her campaign in April.Platner, an oyster farmer, is still likely to win the primary race, University of Maine, Farmington, political science professor Jim Melcher said."He has a prohibitive lead in the polls. There’s every reason to think he will still win," Melcher said. In the latest University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll, taken before the texting allegations came out, Platner led the Democratic field with 76%, followed by Mills 10% and former deputy secretary of the Maryland Department of the Environment David Costello at 3%. Activist Andrea LaFlamme is a write-in candidate for the ballot.Mills has since pointed out that she will still be on the ballot, but it’s probably "too late" for her to win, said University of Maine political science professor Mark Brewer.Early in-person and absentee voting started in mid-May, and the number of ballots already returned by Democrats has been particularly high. Presumably, many of them already voted for Platner, he continued.Still, there are many people that will vote on election day, some of whom were already going to vote for Mills, and some who could defect to her as a protest. It’s unlikely that enough will vote for her, or one of the other candidates, though, to pull off an upset."Does he win an outright majority and avoid a ranked choice runoff?" Brewer asked. "That would seem to be the absolute lowest bar."Will there be a tipping point?Amy Fried, a professor emeritus at the University of Maine, said that based on past sex scandals, it’s "quite likely" there will be more that comes out."For example, we could see the words Platner shared and any images associated with them, some of which might have, as the phrase goes, adult content," Fried wrote on her Substack. "We could hear from the women who were sexting with Graham Platner. They might get interviewed. We might hear how he was representing his relationship status."On June 4, The New York Times ran a story based on interviews with several women who dated Platner in the past. One described his behavior as "unsettling," another said he was "toxic." Platner has denied any allegations alleging "physicality."However, the Platner campaign said told USA TODAY that they saw some of their strongest fundraising of the campaign in the four days following the sexting news. Heck said she can’t foresee anything coming out that would change her mind on voting for him."I want those policies, I’ve fought for those policies for the last 34 years," Heck said, referencing his support for universal health care, fair taxation and ending wars. "I don't fear that Graham's integrity and his commitment to the policies that he's been fighting for is going to change, so my vote won't change."In the past, Brewer said, Platner might have already passed the tipping point of scandals but, with a president who has been accused of sexual assault by more than 20 women and − although he denies the assault allegations − was recorded boasting about grabbing women by their genitals, the rules have changed dramatically."If we were to go back to American politics of the not-so-distant past, I think any one of these probably by themselves would have been disqualifying, particularly, I think, for kind of progressive Democrats," Brewer said. "I think the rules have changed in the last 10 or 15 years, and it's no coincidence that that's the period of time that has been more or less dominated by Donald Trump, right? Trump has changed the standards of what is acceptable for politicians and candidates for public office."There are other comparisons to Trump, too. Like Trump's supporters, most of Platner’s supporters are "ironclad;" dedicated to the person, Melcher said. Platner’s outsider status appeals to Democrats who want somebody to take on the establishment, and they are more willing to accept baggage.If a tipping point does come, Maine law says that a candidate can withdraw their name from the nomination by the second Monday in July. A political committee would then make a replacement nominee for the general election.But Platner would have to choose to withdraw himself.Platner said on MS Now that he has not considered dropping out of the race."Since this campaign launched, we have been and remain deeply humbled by the support and loyalty of this movement. Mainers know Graham, they understand what he stands for, and they believe in what this campaign is fighting for," Ben Chin, Graham for Maine campaign manager, said in a statement to USA TODAY. "Lifting people up and fighting for working Mainers has been and always will be our priority. And if there's any doubt, just wait for the results on Tuesday night."What do the revelations mean for Platner's race against Collins?Collins would always have been a tough opponent for Platner, or any Democrat. In 2020, when former President Joe Biden won Maine by nine points, Collins defeated well-funded Democrat Sara Gideon by nearly as much.But midterm years tend to be bad for the president’s party. Trump has a job approval rating of just 38%, according to an aggregate of polls by the New York Times, and gas prices are up since he took office, so Republicans might not be as motivated to come out to the polls.Polls taken before the sexting reports found Platner ahead of Collins: the UNH poll found him beating Collins 51% to 42%, and a UMass Lowell poll released June 4 found him ahead 48% to 43%.Collins did not respond to a request for comment by time of publication. She told CBS 13 News she was "troubled" by the latest allegations.If nothing else comes out, "time heals all wounds," UNH Survey Center Director Andy Smith said. As the general election approaches, he said, partisanship ramps up and people go back to their home base. This could be especially true in Maine, where Democrats are hungry to defeat Collins."This is going to be a tight race," Brewer said. "If Platner could do one thing to improve his chances, it would be to get rid of these controversies, but he can't do that."One group that’s especially important in the Maine electorate are older women, some of whom may be turned off by the most recent revelations. But Heck hasn’t lost her enthusiasm for him. She said he’s still packing town halls and his message continues to appeal to a wide variety of people."Susan Collins is a disaster for the state," Heck said. "If people are paying attention to a little bit bigger picture, I think the momentum will stay."
