Welcome to Monday’s edition of Washington Secrets, where we are trying to find a World Cup wallchart before Thursday. Today, we look at the latest midterm predictions and whether Republicans might be able to stave off the worst possible forecasts, and ask what’s up with the White House Correspondents’ Association?Democrats have a 7-point lead over Republicans in the generic ballot ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to the latest data from J.L. Partners. That is enough to give the party an 80% chance of taking the House and a 40% chance of flipping the Senate.Those numbers are not unusual in this sort of election year, as any analyst will tell you. When one party holds the White House, House, and Senate, they are set up for a shellacking.
“But all is not lost for Republicans,” according to James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners. “If they can turn out what we are calling mid-propensity voters, then things might look different.”
Johnson delivered his election update to a small group of strategists and clients last week, setting out the political landscape, potential surprises, and an overall forecast for control of Congress.
And at its heart is the question that has long loomed over this round of elections, exercising strategists, pollsters, and pundits: What happens when President Donald Trump’s name is not on the ballot?
