When it comes to prediction markets, the artificial intelligence bubble has nothing on Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Nearly tied with Vice President JD Vance in the odds for the 2028 GOP Presidential nomination, Rubio’s odds are more overvalued than any other political bet.That’s not to say Rubio is doing a poor job as Secretary of State. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Rubio has managed his foreign policy portfolio capably, to say the least. Always on message and articulate, his rising odds are far more about his competence than a true reflection of his chances in 2028. Unfortunately, competence is not a prerequisite for being elected president (see former President Joe Biden).The fact is that the Republican nomination is Vance’s to lose. Starting with Richard Nixon in 1960, every vice president who made a serious play for their party’s nomination has either won it to succeed directly from the vice presidency or one term in the future.
HOW ARE PREDICTION MARKETS REGULATED DIFFERENTLY THAN SPORTS GAMBLING?
At the time of writing, Kalshi has Vance and Rubio nearly tied. A Vance bet costs 32 cents to win $1.00 if he is nominated just over 26 months from now. A Rubio bet costs 30 cents. Polymarket gives Vance a modestly larger advantage, 30.1 cents to 26.3 cents for Rubio.
