President Donald Trump is struggling. His approval ratings have fallen to historic lows, and his standing with key segments of the electorate that formed his 2024 coalition—including Latinos—has sharply declined. He has been unable or unwilling to shift his attention to the issues that matter most to working Americans, such as affordability and the threat that artificial intelligence poses to middle class jobs. By every measure, his administration is dragging down Republicans’ prospects of retaining control of Congress, including the Senate, in the upcoming midterm elections. Nothing has been causing Republicans more problems than the president. The only thing that can save them is if the combination of redistricting, voting restrictions, and the presence of federal troops in cities can overcome the natural direction of the democratic will.
And yet, Trump remains an extraordinarily strong party leader. He has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to retain firm support within the Republican Party and to punish his opponents. In recent primaries, he showcased that strength by helping to unseat a number of Republicans who he believed had crossed him.
In Indiana, his intervention in state races contributed to the defeat of Republican incumbents in the state legislature who refused to comply with his demands for mid-century redistricting. In Kentucky, Trump rallied opposition to ensure that Rep. Thomas Massie lost his primary, as did Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy—a physician who voted for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head up the Department of Health and Human Services despite Kennedy’s persistent attacks on medically approved vaccines.
