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The challenge is not just preventing war between China and the U.S. It’s how to prevent their rivalry from becoming the sole organizing principle of international politics.
For more than a decade, strategic debates have been dominated by one question: Will the United States and China go to war?
The concern is understandable. As China rises and American primacy erodes, comparisons with past great-power rivalries have become unavoidable. Graham Allison’s famous “Thucydides Trap” warns that war often occurs when a rising power challenges an established one. The concept has shaped countless discussions of China-U.S. relations and remains one of the most influential frameworks for understanding the emerging international order.
Yet it may be directing our attention toward the wrong danger.
