With his military unable to effectively penetrate Ukrainian defensive lines and Ukraine increasingly able to strike deep inside Russia, President Vladimir Putin will soon escalate his threats to the West. Will President Donald Trump deter him? Or will the leader of the free world blink?There’s no question that Kremlin escalation is coming. Indeed, it’s already here. Recent days have seen Russia demand that American and European diplomats evacuate Kyiv or risk being killed in Russian missile attacks. We’ve also seen threats to NATO member Latvia over Moscow’s invented claim that the country is hosting Ukrainian drone forces. In addition, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov rolled out new nuclear threats on Wednesday. He reminded us that Moscow reserves the right to use nuclear weapons against any “encroachment” of its “territorial integrity.” Russian ultranationalist rhetoric has also returned to its favored nuclear theme.
The rationale behind this growing escalation is clear: Putin is slowly losing the war in Ukraine and desperately wants the West to end its support for the victim of this war.
On the battlefield, Russian forces in southeastern and eastern Ukraine are now locked out of the Starlink satellite communications network and increasingly denied access to the Telegram messaging app. Their already feeble command and control structures are thus in disarray. Ukrainian drones have also turned both front lines and rear logistics lines into killing fields, deterring and depleting Russian offensive action. Making matters worse, Russia has lost nearly 500,000 soldiers since the Feb. 2022 start of the war, including many of its best personnel.
