The government is preparing for a possible 20% increase in migrant arrivals this summer, with contingency plans for a larger surge linked to the civil war in Sudan and the movement of Bangladeshi nationals through Egypt and Libya before reaching the Mediterranean.

According to the plan developed by the Ministry of Migration and Asylum, migrants arriving in Crete would first be screened at temporary facilities in Hania and Iraklio. The Hania facility is already operating, while the Iraklio center is expected to open by July.

Those considered likely to qualify for asylum, mainly Sudanese nationals, would be transferred to open reception facilities on the mainland. Those deemed unlikely to receive asylum, primarily Egyptians, Bangladeshis and Pakistanis, would be sent to closed facilities on islands and the mainland and held until final asylum rejections are issued within 12 weeks. Authorities then plan to carry out deportations with support from the European Union.

The ministry says it has capacity to absorb the increase, with about 17,000 vacant places in existing facilities. Total capacity stands at 32,000 places, while roughly 15,000 are currently occupied.

Officials consider Greece fully prepared to manage flows at last year’s levels and an increase of up to 20% in Crete. If arrivals exceed that threshold, emergency measures, including a suspension of asylum procedures, could be activated.