"US President Donald Trump is no closer to Iran peace and is being held to ransom over war, as Lebanon proposals demand the impossible - Iran to accept Beirut government's control of Hezbollah"14:18, 04 Jun 2026Ending the US-Iran war depends on a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon that exists only in name and runs on different rules to most truces. Within hours of being announced, this so-called 'ceasefire' looks as shaky as it possibly could.‌The plan puts pressure on Lebanon to enforce Hezbollah-free zones and eventually remove Hezbollah, perhaps with assistance from outside. Hezbollah has rejected the agreement and will resist attempts by the US to persuade Lebanon to enforce the ceasefire on the militant group. The Lebanese military is not as powerful as Hezbollah, despite the militant group having been decimated by Israel.‌And Iran is pressuring the situation into one that avoids the eradication of its most powerful proxy, which it is desperate not to lose as an extension of its might. Tehran insists any lasting peace deal on the US-Israeli war in Iran must include Lebanon and therefore its militant group and most powerful foreign military unit.‌So any lasting peace in the Middle East must rest upon there being a stoppage of all attacks by Hezbollah on Israel and vice versa or the war will resume. That means that even if there is a peace settlement on Iran and the strait of Hormuz is re-opened to the relief of most of the trading world it can be closed again.‌This holds terrible implications for the most chaotic and incoherent war and ensuing peace negotiations that the country of America has launched in its 250 year history. Because Tehran knows that all it has to do to justify closing the Strait again is to encourage Hezbollah to open fire and both wars are back on again.And then there are the Yemeni Houthis, Iran’s other proxy arm have largely not yet entered the arena. They could apply immense pressure on the Bab al-Mandab Strait which is a highly strategic and narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.‌Located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa, it is an an essential gateway between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. Tehran is holding the US to ransom long-term and knows that its proxy Hezbollah holds the key, as the biggest threat to Israel’s security across its northern border.Or, as soon as Israel detects Hezbollah arms movements or possible plans to attack, it will open fire as usual and ask questions later, demolishing any ceasefire and chance of lasting peace. Meanwhile Hezbollah says it has "officially informed Lebanese President Joseph Aoun of its rejection of the agreement, insisting that any acceptable deal must begin with a full Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory.”‌Although Hezbollah was not involved in the talks it does hold weight as the most powerful military in Lebanon - apart from Israel - and a significant political presence. And the whole point of the military incursion deep into Lebanon was to create a buffer zone, thus pushing Hezbollah’s missile teams further away from northern Israel.US President Donald Trump has put himself in an impossible position of having to hold Israel’s hard-right government on a leash, whilst possibly placating Tehran. He talks tough but the Strait of Hormuz will not open itself and nor will Iran’s enriched uranium hand itself over gleefully without Tehran demanding something in return.‌Tehran is desperate for the lifting of sanctions and the freeing up of frozen billions of dollars and yet Trump has already said he won’t lift sanctions. Every time he opens his mouth Trump narrows down his options by saying what he won’t do and what Iran cannot do, because eventually something will have to give.In other words he will have to do something he has already said he won’t do, such as release sanctions or even frozen assets, which he has been warned will go straight to Hezbollah. And all the time the situation in Lebanon looks dire, with no solid ceasefire in sight.Article continues belowEither the US will go back to war with Iran and try to force the nuclear issue - something which has proven impossible without an almost unimaginably costly ground war. Or the US will have to take drastic measures to rein in both Israel and Hezbollah. It could threaten to reduce funding of Israel but how on earth woud it rein in Hezbollah without returning to more threats on Iran?Threats clearly do not work on Iran so the only other offer would be money and the release of sanction and unfreezing of assets. The latter is the least violent solution for Trump - but he loses in a huge way, humiliated into putting the iran question into a far worse one than under the Obama administration and he will find it impossible to spin into a victory.