Electric vehicles (EVs) are reshaping the global car market faster than almost anyone predicted five years ago, but prospects for the next decade are highly uncertain. In the past few years, sales have repeatedly outrun forecasts, driven overwhelmingly by China. But the US is now pulling in the opposite direction, while higher fuel prices are boosting sales in emerging markets — muddying the outlook. The broad consensus among forecasters is that the global EV fleet will grow more slowly in coming years to around 450 million vehicles by 2035 — roughly six times today's level. But if sales maintain their recent pace, the 2035 fleet could be two to three times that size. The implications for oil demand are significant.