Argentina's shale boom has flipped the central question facing its energy sector. The oil is there to be pumped; the harder problem
Vaca Muerta will pump 1M barrels/day by Q2 2028, but transport capacity—not wells—is the constraint; Oldelval booked from July. A $3bn infrastructure push (VMOS, Duplicar) in late 2026 shows energy supply chains are constrained by capex execution and construction timelines, not reserves.
ARGENTINA · ENERGY
Key Facts
—The projection: Pipeline operator Oldelval expects Vaca Muerta to reach 1 million barrels of oil a day by the second quarter of 2028.
—The constraint: The story is no longer how much oil can be pumped, but how much can be shipped out; Oldelval’s capacity is fully booked from July.
—Where output stands: Argentina produces just over 850,000 barrels a day now; the energy minister has said 1 million is possible in 2026.
Produção de petróleo em Vaca Muerta deve atingir um milhão de barris por dia até 2028
Las refinerías argentinas rediseñan sus plantas por el avance de Vaca Muerta
El conflicto en Medio Oriente amenaza un componente clave del mayor proyecto exportador de petróleo de Vaca Muerta
Empieza la obra submarina que permitirá exportar petróleo de Vaca Muerta por Río Negro
Megainversión: Chevrón presentó un pedido de ingreso al RIGI en Vaca Muerta por u$s 13.800 millones
La petrolera que apostó a Vaca Muerta antes que nadie vuelve a la carga con la inversión más grande de su historia en el país
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