“We know what’s coming. We know they’re going to bet the Knicks as ‘dogs in each game and to win the whole thing,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic.Avello, a Poughkeepsie, N.Y., native who moved to Las Vegas in the late 1970s soon after they won their last championship, is among the throngs of New York Knicks fans excited for the NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs. The series starts Wednesday, and it’s a dream matchup for the NBA and a nightmare for sportsbooks.“It could be one of the most heavily-bet Finals ever,” Avello said.The Finals will feature the stark contrast of the Knicks, representing the top television market with A-list celebrities courtside, against the Spurs, understated yet led by a 7-foot-4, 22-year-old superstar in Victor Wembanyama. The common ground is their underdog paths that have converged to create a lose-lose scenario for the house.“We did not want those two teams to meet because there’s no good outcome for us at this point,” Avello said.The Spurs and Knicks represented the two most significant liabilities to almost every sportsbook’s bottom line, given each team had long-shot title odds throughout most of the regular season. Plus, the Knicks fan base that took over road arenas and celebrated playoff wins in the streets of Manhattan also bet with their hearts.“The Knicks are always a popular team for customers, and their run to the Finals has only magnified that, a FanDuel trader said via email. “New York is our most-bet team to win the championship.”The advantage with any sportsbook’s liability is the house still keeps all the money wagered on the 29 eliminated teams. However, a book can still finish with an overall net negative if Spurs or Knicks long-shot tickets hit or a ridiculously high volume of decent-sized postseason wagers cash.“Knicks are unsurprisingly very heavily bet in New York, more so than any other state, both per game and in the futures,” Caesars Sportsbook lead basketball oddsmaker David Lieberman said. “They are a liability, second to the Spurs but catching up quickly.”The Spurs entered the year as long shots at +6500, but gradually shed that label, outperforming their regular-season metrics and silencing doubters throughout the postseason. The Knicks were among the preseason favorites in the Eastern Conference, but entered the playoffs at +2200 before going on this dominant run.New York has destroyed everyone in its path over the past month, sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Knicks are riding an 11-game win streak (10-1 against the spread), defeating opponents by a 23.8 points per game margin that ranks as the largest over any 11-game stretch in NBA regular-season or postseason history.So, should experts place more weight on a larger sample size of the entire season or this current version that has shot 53.3 percent from the field and 41.3 percent from deep – good for an absurd net rating of +24.5?“This offense has been a juggernaut. I am not bending to the market,” Circa Sports NBA oddsmaker and lifelong Knicks fan Justin Tricarico told The Athletic. “(Running their offense through Karl-Anthony Towns) gave me the confidence to book a certain way. The offense just completely opened up.”Similarly, San Antonio’s power rating has also increased. Obviously eliminating the defending-champion Oklahoma City Thunder improves perception, but the Spurs were only 3.5-point road underdogs in Game 7 – compared to spreads of 7.5 in Games 1 and 2.“The Spurs are the team that we’re in trouble with. I kick myself about it. I have had regrets about it all year,” Tricarico said, speaking to his team’s repeated reluctance to lower San Antonio’s odds enough to deter bettors. “I just didn’t see the Wemby thing ascending this year.”If San Antonio wins at its preseason odds of +6500, it would be a record. The current mark is the Warriors at +3500 in 2014-15.Spurs skeptics will point to OKC’s injuries, forcing the Thunder to play without All-Star Jalen Williams and key reserve Ajay Mitchell nearly the entire Western Conference finals. Or maybe this is simply more about the Knicks peaking at the right time.“At the risk of exposing my fanhood, which has carried me through five separate decades as a season ticket holder, the Knicks’ play over this 11-game winning streak has catapulted them to the top of my power ratings,” veteran professional bettor Paul Bovi said via direct message. “They are clearly playing their best basketball of the season and should dispatch either opponent in six games.”The Knicks are 4.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 on Wednesday and +160 on the series price; San Antonio is a -200 favorite.
How Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals put sportsbooks into a lose-lose scenario
Doug Kezirian spoke to sportsbooks to breakdown all things NBA Finals betting and why the Knicks-Spurs series is tough for sportsbooks.
Knicks-Spurs Finals brings together two underdog paths (Spurs +6500, Knicks +2200 preseason) concentrating 65% of bets on New York, creating sportsbook losses. Rapid shifts in team performance break models trained on preseason data—a lesson for managers deploying forecast systems in volatile domains.










