PremiumThis month, it feels like the tail risks around the distribution are unusually large.Equity and credit markets have been remarkably resilient against geopolitical shocks, yet sovereign bonds like 10yr Treasuries are still trading in a tight correlation with oil prices.1. Global equities have seen remarkable strength given the current array of risks, with the S&P 500 up +16% in two months. But since WWII, the S&P 500 has only seen a two-month gain that fast coming out of a recession (like the GFC and Covid-19) or before a major crash like Black Monday 1987.
Outside Of Recession Rebounds, The S&P Hasn't Done This Since Right Before 1987's Black Monday
The tails in the distribution are unusually pronounced right now, both in terms of geopolitics, and the market ramifications...
94 words~1 min read
