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Morningstar valued SpaceX at $780 billion, about 48% below the roughly $1.5 trillion private market valuation the company achieved in its most recent funding round, as the rocket and satellite company prepares for a public listing.
The research firm assigned SpaceX a narrow economic moat rating and said its discounted cash flow analysis points to significant overvaluation at the IPO price the company is targeting. Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens put it plainly: "We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO."
SpaceX is targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion in the IPO, according to Reuters. The company was last valued at $1.53 trillion on secondary trading platform Forge Global.
Morningstar's $780 billion enterprise value breaks into two main parts. The firm estimates the core space launch and Starlink satellite connectivity businesses are worth roughly $611 billion combined. A probability-weighted assessment of three scenarios for the company's AI division — which includes the xAI large language model, the Colossus data center, and social network X $TWTR 0.00% — adds $170 billion to that figure.
