Traders seem to be betting that the U.S., Israel, and Iran are all trying to find a way out of the mess they’re in. Deutsche Bank’s “World Outlook”—published Monday and reiterated in another note this morning—says, “Amid lingering uncertainty, our oil forecast assumes a re-opening of Hormuz later in June.” Jim Reid’s team said today: “Our baseline expectation is that a US-Iran deal is reached this month that allows shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume, with Brent crude falling back to $86/bbl in Q4.”
ONE BIG THINGNew rules for the S&P 500 could benefit SpaceX and Anthropic and hurt investors
To get into the S&P 500, a company is supposed to make money, writes Fortune’s Eva Roytburg. The sum of its last four quarters of earnings must be positive, as must its most recent quarter. That’s a decades-old rule, and it’s the reason the S&P 500 is regarded as the premier ranking of public, high-quality, large-cap U.S. companies.
Soon, that rule will likely be broken, three times. On purpose. S&P Dow Jones is considering relaxing its rules on profitability, trading history, and ownership concentration in order to allow SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic to go public with—potentially—lower-quality earnings than the other stocks in the benchmark index.
