The world will descend on New York on Sunday night, by way of the 78th Tony Awards. Shows set in the U.S., the U.K., Cuba, Italy, and Iran all make their way to the nominees circle. Not to mention a show from South Korea projected to win more Tonys than any other production, potentially the first one ever to premiere in Asia and win best musical.
And when I say “projected,” I mean that mathematically. Every year, I run a statistical model based on precursor awards, which categories a show is nominated in, blended critic predictions, and betting markets to project the odds that each nominee will emerge victorious in every category. After another wonderful year on Broadway, with 42 new shows opening and 29 of them receiving nominations, it’s time to get excited for the big night with a data-based forecast at who might triumph at Radio City Music Hall on June 8 on CBS (and Paramount+).
Maybe Happy Ending is both the name of the show and a surprisingly apt description for how its night at the Tonys will conclude. Emphasis on “maybe”: the model is higher on Dead Outlaw than one might suspect, since it takes into account that show’s multiple honors for its off-Broadway run a year ago.
Best play is much closer than best musical, with three productions above a 1-in-5 chance to win. The Drama League has a remarkable streak in this category, predicting every Tony winner since Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike (2013), so that’s enough to put this year’s Drama League pick of Oh, Mary! over the top.
